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Tory Poll: SNP Will Take Gordon Brown's Seat

Tory Poll: SNP Will Take Gordon Brown's Seat

Gordon Brown's Commons seat is set to be snatched by the SNP at the general election, according to polling by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft.

Labour is on course to lose Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath to the SNP with a 28.5% swing, one of dozens of gains predicted for Nicola Sturgeon’s party in Scotland at the expense of Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

High profile casualties could include the former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy in Ross, Skye and Lochaber. Alistair Darling’s seat, Edinburgh South West, is also set to go to the nationalists, the polling found.

Mr Brown and Mr Darling, who served in government throughout Labour’s 13 years in power from 1997 to 2010, are both standing down at the general election. Mr Brown was first elected in 1983 and Mr Darling in 1987.

In Lord Ashcroft’s study of eight key seats in Scotland, the SNP would gain six and is neck and neck in the Conservatives’ only seat north of the border, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, represented by Scotland Office minister David Mundell.

The poll suggests the new Scottish Labour leader, Jim Murphy, has just a one point lead in East Renfrewshire, where his majority was over 10,000 in 2010.

Last week Mr Murphy confirmed he will defend his seat, after previously considering quitting and fighting a by-election in the Scottish Parliament, a move now made much too risky by the SNP surge.

Across the UK, Labour and the Conservatives are heading for a dead heat on polling day of 272 seats each, although Lord Ashcroft was keen to stress some of the results are marginal and findings are a snapshot rather than a prediction.

He said: "As things stand, Labour losses in Scotland could offset their gains from the Tories, leading to something close to a dead heat."

Lord Ashcroft said there was an "unmistakeable" trend in the nearly 2,000 national voting intention polls released since the last election.

"Labour have fallen from their peak above 40% to the low 30s, from which the Conservatives have been unable to break free since the middle of 2012.

"The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, remain well below half their 2010 vote share, and UKIP have fallen back slightly from their peak at the end of last year.”

A delighted Angus Robertson, the SNP’s general election campaign director, said: "These polls are very encouraging, but we aren't taking a single seat or vote for granted in May.”

Mr Murphy said: "David Cameron will be rubbing his hands with glee when he sees these polls, because any seat the SNP take from Scottish Labour makes it more likely the Tories will be the largest party across the UK."

A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said: "This poll shows that the Scottish Conservatives are now in a real fight across Scotland.”

A Scottish Liberal Democrat spokeswoman said: "These polls show that Lib Dems are best placed to stop the SNP in the Highlands and the North East.

"As the election gets nearer people will want to back Scottish Liberal Democrat MPs to support our focus on public services and our plan for more support for the NHS."