The traffic light system the UK could follow to ease out of coronavirus lockdown

Britain could start to ease out of the coronavirus lockdown as early as May 4, say two leading UCL economists who have submitted their proposals to the Government.

They suggest it could start with small shops opening with the same social distancing policies as supermarkets, the return of “low risk” activities such as beauty salons or hairdressers but with people wearing masks and the reopening of all parks and private green spaces like golf clubs.

This first phase in what the academics describe as a traffic light strategy would be the “red light” stage, when people would be expected to stop to think before they did things and continue to avoid behaviours from before the crisis.

Michael Gove, chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, on Sunday poured cold water on reports that they had adopted the UCL “traffic light” strategy as a way out of the lockdown - and rejected outright suggestions that schools could return as early as May 11.

"It is entirely understandable, of course, that there should be a public debate about how we approach these difficult choices," said Mr Gove.

"It is the case that we are looking at all of the evidence, but we have set some tests which need to be passed before we can think of easing restrictions in this lockdown.”

The UCL academics say that if their first “red” light stage proved effective, it could be followed as little as three weeks later by an “amber” stage when unlimited private car journeys would be allowed as well as family visits but no parties or big gatherings.

This would also envisage the reopening of schools and small firms employing up to 50 staff and restaurants but with strict seating demarcations to ensure social distancing.

Wearing masks and disposable gloves would be compulsory when using public transport, according to the paper written by Dr Gerard Lyons, a former economics adviser to Boris Johnson when he was at City Hall and Paul Ormerod, a UCL visiting professor.

“In order to minimise pressure on public transport and crowds, there would have to be attempts to vary the rush-hour, with different opening and closing times,” say the pair, whose plan is backed by Tory MPs including former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

“We would still be reluctant to reopen large department stores, particularly as they will hold excess stocks and feel incentivised to host sales that may attract crowds.”

It would only be in the final “green” light phase that sporting events or mass gatherings could take place, or places of worship reopen.

This would also include any gatherings where a single person could infect many including theatres, cinemas and creative activity like comedy clubs. Larger firms would reopen as would department stores.

Larger weddings and funerals would be allowed while pubs, restaurants and nightclubs could also reopen at this stage.

The UCL economists say early estimates suggest that total output in the UK seems to have fallen by at least 15 per cent and possibly as much as 30 per cent since the introduction of lockdown.

With the UK economy currently around £2.2 trillion, this equates to £42 billion a week.

In their paper, the UCL economists say they favour “unlocking based on economic activity, as this is the only way that is guaranteed to help the economy and the most likely way to ensure that people behave cautiously and keep the virus under control.”

They advocate a traffic light approach as it would be easy to understand and give a clear sense of direction, with economic activity, schools, and shops opening in stages in a gradual and predictable way.

However, like the Government, they argue the trigger would be influenced by medical data, such as as that used by Spain, Austria and Denmark as the point where new cases are now below half their peak level.

“Any unlocking must also have two critical technical components: enhanced testing and using technology to improve tracking and tracing,” they said. “These will be part of any exit route.

“The government must continue with clear and strong messages that behaviour needs to continue to be responsible. People must act to protect others.

“These changes to behaviour need to continue whatever exit route is chosen until either a vaccine is available, or population wide testing and tracing is in place.”