With ‘Transformers One,’ Paramount Looks for More Modest Box Office Grosses From Cybertron

More than a decade ago, “Transformers” was not only the biggest moneymaker for Paramount, but for the entire box office. The live-action/CGI series started by Michael Bay in 2007 grossed $5.2 billion worldwide, with two installments topping $1 billion.

“Transformers One,” which pivots the Hasbro Entertainment-produced franchise to 3D animation, won’t make anywhere near that amount. But it doesn’t need to. With a lower production budget than its Bayhem brethren, Paramount is looking for this film to be a more modest success that legs out well into October, refreshes interest in the Autobots, and helps build the studio’s image as a growing player in theatrical animation.

Plus, selling a few million truckloads of toys wouldn’t hurt either.

Last year, the live-action/CGI “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” had a break-even run at the box office. Without the boost from Chinese moviegoers that past “Transformers” installments enjoyed, the film grossed $439.2 million worldwide against a tentpole-level $195 million budget.

At the time, insiders at Paramount said they were fine with that result, as it signaled to them that there was still more than enough interest in seeing “Transformers” to support a cheaper animated film like “Transformers One,” which carries a reported budget of just $75 million before marketing costs.

For more than a year, confidence has been high at the studio for the new film, which tells the tale of how two miner robots named Orion Pax and D-16 became the legendary Optimus Prime and Megatron.

That confidence appears to be well-placed. With 72 reviews logged, “Transformers One” has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 90% and is enjoying strong word-of-mouth from hardcore fans who attended advance screenings.

That said, don’t expect a big opening weekend. Paramount is projecting an opening of around $30 million, while independent trackers and rival studios are predicting around $34 million. That’s well below the $61 million opening of “Rise of the Beasts,” but would be slightly above the $28 million opening of Paramount’s last animated film, “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem,” in August 2023.

And it is “Mutant Mayhem,” not past “Transformers” films, that is the comp here. Sporting a $70 million budget, the “TMNT” film was a modest theatrical success at $180.3 million worldwide. Paramount deemed that enough to move forward with a two-season Paramount+ spinoff series that would lead directly into a theatrical sequel in 2026.

Greenlighting a sequel on such low numbers may not seem like it makes sense, until you take into account the $1 billion-plus in “Ninja Turtles” merch sales that Paramount reported last year. Such lucrative downstream revenue is a major reason why Paramount’s animation division and Nickelodeon Animation are now such a big part of the studio’s plans — both before and after its acquisition by Skydance Media — with “Spongebob Squarepants” and “Avatar: The Last Airbender” films also in the works.

There are few franchises with such a successful tandem of toys and media than “Transformers,” which originated 40 years ago with Hasbro’s toy line and a Saturday morning cartoon series that became a cornerstone of the childhoods of countless 80s kids. While in the best-case box office scenario “Transformers One” tops out at $150 million in domestic grosses, that could pale in comparison to the toys and other merch that parents will buy for kids who fall in love with this action-packed — yet tragic — tale of humble friends becoming intergalactic foes.

Meanwhile, a pair of genre films will provide smaller support to theaters. Lionsgate is releasing “Never Let Go,” hoping that word-of-mouth for this $20 million production starring Halle Berry can give them a modest theatrical victory after “The Killer’s Game” joined “Borderlands” and “The Crow” as the studio’s latest misfire with a $2.6 million opening weekend.

“Never Let Go” is currently projected to do only slightly better with a $4-7 million launch, though reception is skewing positive with a 69% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Also hitting theaters is the gruesome but critically acclaimed body horror satire “The Substance,” which is the first wide release from indie distributor Mubi after it acquired the film for a reported $10 million back in May. The film, which will be on about 1,700 screens, is projected for a $3 million opening as Mubi seeks to build a reputation as a distributor of cutting-edge and challenging cinema to rival the current leaders of the genre specialty space, A24 and Neon.

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