Tropical diseases, flooding and drought by 2080 in Kent, says study

Tropical diseases, flooding and drought could be commonplace by 2080 in Kent, a new study says. Malaria and dengue fever could reportedly be occurring in the county within decades if climate change continues to worsen.

It says the county is likely to suffer drought, serious illnesses, rising sea levels and catastrophic flooding. Crop failures, rising food and fuel prices, air pollution and pressure on public services are predicted outcomes of global warming in the future.

The report considered this week (November 19) by Kent County Council’s Health Reform and Public Health Committee paints a stark picture of life by 2080 caused by warmer winters (up by 3-4 degrees C) and hotter summers (up 5-6 degrees C). With rainfall anticipated to rise by 30% or more over the seasons and higher temperatures, an explosion of bugs, such as snails, flies, ticks and mosquitoes, could bring vector-borne diseases to Kent’s shores.

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The report, presented by Dr Anjan Ghosh, KCC Director of Public Health, and cabinet member for public health, Cllr Dan Watkins, warns of serious consequences for residents’ physical health and mental wellbeing.

The report states: “Any infectious disease whose transmission and spread are influenced by changes and variations in climate and weather is considered a climate-sensitive infectious disease. These include diseases that are spread by air, food, water or vectors.

Vector-borne diseases are those caused by pathogens that have been transmitted to a human by a vector, such as a snail, fly, tick or mosquito.

“Changes in temperature and rainfall can have significant impacts on the spread of these vectors.”

Warming temperatures may lead to the “introduction and establishment” of invasive mosquito species, one of which spreads dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, says the report. Ticks, which can cause the debilitating Lyme disease, could increase in their spread and number.

It adds: “Invasive mosquitoes are actively monitored by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) in Kent and have been detected. Their spread is being prevented through targeted interventions.”

But there is also is heightened risk of food and water-borne bacterial infections such as salmonella and campylobacter which cause gastrointestinal illness.

Liberal Democrat councillor Richard Streatfeild said: “The message in this paper is that the county must face up to the realities of climate change. For public health that means dealing with new diseases, ensuring we have enough water and crucially making sure we can keep cool enough in hotter summers.

"The council must act now to mitigate the clear threats that have been identified.”

Cllr Streatfeild suggested the report be presented to full council for consideration. The report said that droughts and crop failures in the future will result in food price volatility and insecurity. Water shortages are also a worry for the future.

It also notes: “Coastal hazards such as flooding or landslides cause injury, morbidities, poor health or death.”

Conservative Jordan Meade, referring to farmers’ protests over the government’s changes to inheritance tax, said: “Food security is something that should concern us all… and the more support that we can give to the farming community the better.”

Fellow Conservative Cllr Tony Hills, whose coastal division may be hit by a one metre rise in sea level, warned members: “We mustn’t frighten people – we must adapt. We have so many problems coming up but we have to deal with them one at a time.”

The committee noted the report and recommended its wider circulation to members.