Trump’s victory shows Europe must stand on its own feet – that’s the way to keep the US on board

Donald Trump meets during the NATO summit at The Grove, Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2019
Donald Trump meets during the NATO summit at The Grove, Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2019

It was Cardiff 2014 and Nato leaders gathered to pledge a 2 per cent GDP spend on their defence budgets. The days before, not surprisingly the Treasury were resisting the US initiative. It took a direct intervention from the White House to No 10 to get them over the line.

In the end the Treasury buckled but not before they used a few cheats to artificially pump up the numbers. Into the Defence budget they tipped VAT receipts, GCHQ funding and MI6 pensions. A complete con in my book that fooled no one – but somehow the UK got to a place that convinced the wider public who knew no better.

But for those that bristle at Donald Trump’s demands for greater defence spending they should reflect on the fact that the 2 per cent defence target was a President Obama initiative. In fact, the one thing that both Trump and Obama agreed on was this. It isn’t unreasonable after 10 years for the US to lose patience with us all in Europe. Sure, Trump expresses it in a different way than his predecessors, but he means the same thing.

The difference between 2014 and now is the world is much more dangerous and the risks of conflict spreading much greater. In Europe we are all running out of excuses. The second time round Trump won’t be so patient. If the UK truly wants to lead and truly wants to stand up to Putin, then we better put our money where our mouth is.

This year, according to Nato, the US is on course to spend $755 billion dollars on defence and the rest of us (the 31 others) will spend just $430 billion. Putin will be rubbing his hands at the prospect of a potential schism in NATO. But it doesn’t have to be that way.

We have two months to prepare for the Donald and two months to show the Kremlin that we will see our support through for Ukraine. The European powers have the money and the capabilities to do it if we really want to. It will just mean sacrifices elsewhere.

The best thing that Keir Starmer could do is greet the new President on Inauguration Day on January 20 with the words, “The UK, as your closest ally, has committed to 3 per cent of GDP and will be leading the charge in Europe.”

We don’t need a European Army or an EU defence force but what we, and many other NATO members need to do is stop the charade of paper armies – under equipped, immobile and depleted of ammunition. Then we need to step up to the plate and lean into Ukraine.

Take the lead? Novel, I know. But I noticed that Britain really did bring people with them when we tried. We should sit down with Poland, the Nordics, Turkey and France and once and for all take responsibility for our security.

In 2022 I made 41 international visits, before and after the invasion. I stood in the snow with the president of then neutral Finland and discussed what we could do. I crafted security guarantees for Sweden and Finland. I sent troops to support Poland on the border with Belarus and worked very closely with our Dutch and Danish friends. I even stood in wind swept airfields with US generals who weren’t able to set foot in Ukraine discussing tactics.

It is all possible. The US and their Military respect that leadership. They want that leadership. And most in Europe also want to stand and fight against the very real threat to all we stand for. But there is no time to waste. The Ministry of Defence doesn’t need another Defence review. It doesn’t need vague promises of limp increases, absent Ministers and Treasury tricks.

If Starmer wants President Elect Trump to take him seriously then he should divert some of that £22 billion he found for the already heavily funded and unproductive NHS and use it to ensure Putin does fail and wider Nato starts to shoulder the costs.