Trump's letter to Erdogan and his ineffective 'ceasefire' is just the beginning of our humiliation. So how will other Republicans react?

For all of President Donald Trump's bluster about "strength" and his admiration for international leaders who rule with an iron fist, when it comes to his decision-making on the international stage, he shows a propensity towards weakness. Undoubtedly, this weakness diminishes the influence of the United States.

Unwise, fly by-the-seat-of-his-pants decision-making on Syria has had disastrous results. When the president announced a hasty withdrawal of troops from Syria last year, it prompted the resignation of then-Secretary of Defense James Mattis. Trump's hasty retreat from his announcement came too late as Mattis was already out the door.

Trump's most recent flub was a phone call he took from the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who announced his intention to cross the Turkish border into Syria. Trump, apparently seeing no value at all in the Kurdish forces who were the target of Erdoğan's plan, didn't object (as far as we know) and gave Erdoğan tacit approval by announcing the removal of US forces from the area.

Trump, lacking any domestic agenda, made another tactical and political decision, not a strategic one. Knowing that his nationalist base would approve (along with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul), he claimed the move was part of his grand plan to end the "endless wars," which is little more than cliche-ridden tripe. National security expert John Noonan said of the phrase on Twitter, “'Endless Wars’ is much catchier way to say ‘yeah we have a brigade or two out of a 1.2 million man Armed Forces helping local militaries and militias do the heavy lifting trying to keep some really bad people from coming to power’."

We don't know if Erdoğan would have listened to Trump had he warned against marching across the border. But Trump gave no indication he tried to persuade the Turkish president and so the attack began. Needless to say, the president faced a fierce backlash from members of Congress, including many recent stalwart Republican supporters including South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. Once news reports showed the Turkish military seemingly engaging in an all-out effort to destroy the Kurds, Trump then tried to save face.

He sent a letter. It was as coherent and perspicacious as one would expect. At one point, he writes: "Don't be a tough guy! Don't be a fool!" It's the kind of language one would expect to hear in a 1940's James Cagney gangster film. According to news reports, Erdoğan was so impressed with the letter that he threw it in the trash.

Even with the recently announced "ceasefire," Trump put on a display of victory. He tweeted: "This deal could NEVER have been made 3 days ago. There needed to be some "tough" love in order to get it done. Great for everybody. Proud of all!"

The Neville Chamberlain-like bragging was immediately undercut by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who said, "This is not a ceasefire. We will pause the operation for 120 hours in order for the terrorists to leave. We will only stop the operation if our conditions are met."

It doesn't seem to end. Trump lives in a reality television world, believing high-profile displays with world leaders — whether it's Erdoğan or Kim Jong-un — and transactional, real-estate type manoeuvres will work on the diplomatic front. All it does is cost the United States more legitimacy, leaving a giant mess for Trump's successor to clean up.

The only question that remains is: How many Republicans will continue to stick with their leader? With impeachment looming and polls moving in the direction of not only impeaching the president but removing him, Trump can ill afford to alienate GOP support, no matter the issue.

Trump's bumbling over Turkey and the Kurds could very well be a bellwether event of his presidency. How he handles the situation in the weeks to come will go a long way towards determining if the support he enjoys among Congressional Republicans holds up.