Tryg A/S Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Tryg A/S (CPH:TRYG) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Tryg reported ø22b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ø9.42 beat expectations, being 2.2% higher than what analysts expected. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see analysts' latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Tryg

Taking into account the latest results, the latest consensus from Tryg's eight analysts is for revenues of ø22.6b in 2020, which would reflect a modest 2.0% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 8.0% to ø8.67 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of ø22.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of ø8.61 in 2020. So it's pretty clear that, although analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Analysts reconfirmed their price target of ø193, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Tryg analyst has a price target of ø233 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ø151. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

In addition, we can look to Tryg's past performance and see whether business is expected to improve, and if the company is expected to perform better than wider market. It's pretty clear that analysts expect Tryg's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 2.0%, compared to a historical growth rate of 2.7% over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same market, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 0.05% next year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that Tryg is still expected to grow faster than the wider market.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. They also made no changes to their revenue estimates, implying analysts are not expecting any major impacts to the sales trajectory in the near term. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Tryg analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Tryg's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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