Two things can tell you if Trump will be impeached in 2018: the midterms and Mueller

Impeachment is a word that the White House had to deal with very early in the Donald Trump presidency – and it has never gone away.

Other than the President’s controversial words, it is the investigation into Russia’s presidential election meddling – and the possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin – that has piqued the most interest. According to an analysis of Google searches by the Brookings Institute think tank these peaks came in May and November, the former being when Mr Trump fired his firmer FBI director James Comey and the latter being when a number of Trump campaign officials were facing indictment or potential indictment.

While Google searches do not display intent – whether people were for or against impeachment – it does play into the two areas that many believe could bring a potential case of impeachment. In regards to Mr Comey, his replacement in charge of the federal investigation, Special Counsel Robert Mueller, is said to be looking into the possibly of obstruction of justice having been committed. That comes after Mr Comey testified to Congress that Mr Trump had asked him in a conversation prior to his firing to consider “letting go” an investigation to his former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. The White House and Mr Trump have denied he said anything like that.

The second area Mr Mueller is looking at is possible Russian collusion, with Mr Flynn being one of two former Trump campaign officials to plead guilty to lying to the FBI over contacts with Russians. Mr Flynn was the first official to have worked in the Trump administration to be charged in the probe – and led to speculation that Mr Mueller was arrowing in on the White House.

If Mr Trump is to be impeached during his second year, much will hang on the state of Mr Mueller’s investigation. There are reports that Mr Trump’s lawyers are expecting a request by Mr Mueller for an interview with the President – with both Mr Trump and the White House repeatedly saying that there has been no collusion and that the investigation will finish by giving Mr Trump the all-clear. Mr Trump has declared the investigation – and the two congressional panels into the Russia situation – a “which hunt”, leading in part to a breakdown between the Democrats and Republicans on the non-partisan House and Senate panels with both sides accusing the other of trying to make political capital.

Such a breakdown in communication between the two sides places even more importance on the federal investigation, and Mr Mueller and his team are quite rightly trying to avoid an excess of information flowing into the public domain as they determine what steps to take – there is also little sense of a time frame for a report as it stands. If Mr Mueller comes back with something damning about Mr Trump this year then it increases the possibility of impeachment, while an all-clear would make the opposite true.

Outside of the Russia investigation, impeachment has been a regular topic on Capitol Hill, with members of Congress from both parties recognising it as a quick route to a soundbite that will get some media attention, although those on the Hill have also been bombarded with questions about it during interviews. California billionaire Tom Steyer has also been a vocal presence, running a PR campaign including national TV adverts calling for impeachment. He has spent at least $20m on that campaign, but as one of the Democrats’ biggest benefactors he has also been speaking to Democrat leadership figures.

So far, three Democrat Congressmen have introduced articles of impeachment – the latest and most vocal of these is representative Al Green of Texas, who introduced them against the will of his party’s leadership and saw a motion to table them for discussion rejected by a large majority in the House. Those articles actually focused on accusations that Mr Trump engendered “racial antipathy and bigotry” rather than collusion and will be a subject Mr Green will return to.

As for the Democrat Party at large, there has been caution over talk of impeachment, aware that Republicans control both chambers of Congress. But with Democrats looking to create momentum before the national midterm elections in November after a number of recent surprise victories, the picture may look different at the end of the year.

The Democrats are looking to flip the Senate – where Republicans currently hold a slim 51-49 advantage, and are becoming more optimistic about turning the 24 seats needed to take control of the 435-strong House, with Mr Steyer pledging $30m to try and ensure the House turns blue. If both happen, you can sure that sections of the party will clamour for another attempt at impeaching Mr Trump.

However, party leadership may feel they need the cover of something like a damning report from Mr Mueller which would gain cross-party support, aware that when former President Bill Clinton was impeached in December 1998 it was largely a Republican effort with only five Democrat votes for any of the articles in the House. With an impeachment inquiry having been running before the November midterms that year, Republicans had been expecting gains from the scandal – however it was the Democrats who gained five seats in the chamber. If Democrats do push for the impeachment of Mr Trump they will want to be clear about the possible ramifications, with a partisan effort having precedent for damaging the party that brings it.

As it stands, the chances of Mr Trump facing impeachment this year are slim – but it is an issue that will not go away and may become a much more serious topic later in 2018.