UK braces for more wind and rain as ex-hurricanes sweep across Atlantic
Forecasters are keeping a close eye on two weather systems heading towards Europe from the western Atlantic. One is former Hurricane Isaac that is predicted to stall and slowly dissipate west of Ireland, bringing spells of rain to the UK this coming weekend.
The other is tropical storm Kirk, which is expected to develop into a major hurricane by mid-week before crossing the Atlantic. Some weather models show Britain in the direct path of this system on the following weekend of October 12-13, bringing strong winds and more rain.
Even if the UK manages to dodge Kirk, the country is expected to see more unsettled conditions in the coming weeks. In its long-range forecast for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, the Met Office has been predicting a “well above average” tropical storm activity in the period June to November, influenced by La Niña.
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The latter part of this week is expected to be drier, allowing the country to recover from recent deluges. According to the Met Office, this is likely to end on Saturday, October 5, with conditions turning “rather wet and more windy” over Wales.
This area of low pressure, the remnants of Hurricane Isaac, is set to influence the weather going into next week. The Met Office said: “This will bring more widely unsettled conditions, with periods of rain or showers, perhaps heavy and persistent at times, and perhaps accompanied by windy spells too. The wettest conditions, relative to average, are likely across England and Wales.”
As next week progresses, colder weather is predicted to sink across the UK. The Met Office expects this colder and drier spell to become more established across the UK by the following weekend.
A potential fly in the ointment could be the remnants of storm/hurricane Kirk. Some weather models show a deep low sweeping across the UK on the weekend of October 12-13, others show it sinking to the south. Current odds are against a direct strike but if it does, it could cause disruption. Sign up now for the latest news on the North Wales Live Whatsapp community
Long-range forecasts are fraught with difficulty and much could change in the coming days. Online group North Wales Storm Watch is keeping a watching brief. It said: “Those in the Azores and northwest Europe should stay tuned as models bring Kirk close to The Azores, Ireland and south Britain. Will likely be a much weaker storm if it reaches us.”
After so much wet weather, is there any relief in sight? The Met Office is a little pessimistic. In its long-range UK forecast, for October 15-29, it suggested things may improve by the end of the month.
“Confidence is rather low through this period,” said the forecaster. “But a general continuation of recent weather patterns is most likely, with areas of low pressure bringing wet and perhaps windy conditions across central and southern UK in particular, with the best of any longer drier spells likely in the north or northwest.
“That said, occasional drier spells are possible more widely as higher pressure builds for a time, bringing the chance of fog and frost at night. Temperatures will tend to be close to average overall in the south, but likely below average in the northwest.” Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox
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