'Hope dies last': fatalism among EU leaders as no-deal Brexit looks likely

The EU increasingly believes a no-deal Brexit on 12 April is the most likely outcome, senior EU officials have said, prompting Emmanuel Macron to privately ask the Irish prime minister if his country could cope.

The French president sought assurance from Leo Varadkar in the closing moments of a marathon session of talks on Thursday night, as the leaders looked to settle on mid-April as the new cliff-edge.

“What will happen if there is a no-deal Brexit on 12 April?” Macron asked of the Irish taoiseach. “Would you be fine?”

Varadkar responded: “We can cope”.

The level of fatalism among the EU’s leaders was evident in the comments of the European council president, Donald Tusk, at the close of a dramatic two-day summit in Brussels.

Tusk expressed his satisfaction that “anything is possible”, including a revocation of article 50, following the leaders’ agreement to the unconditional period of extra-time.

Should the Commons vote down the withdrawal agreement next week at the third time of asking, the UK can stay a member of the EU until 12 April.

The British government could seek a further lengthy extension up to that point should a general election be called, a second referendum or a new political process that would guarantee a majority in the Commons for a deal.

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In the unlikely event that May does win the support of the Commons when the Brexit deal goes to MPs again, the UK will stay a member state until 22 May to allow necessary withdrawal legislation to be passed.

But Tusk signalled the lack of belief among the leaders that a no deal would be avoided. “The fate of Brexit is in the hands of our British friends,” Tusk said. “We are, as the EU, prepared for the worst, but hope for the best. As you know, hope dies last.”

Senior EU officials said that after listening to Theresa May on Thursday afternoon, the 27 leaders were convinced that “a no-deal situation is an absolute very, very real one”.

“It is unfortunately, likely,” the official added.

The EU is expected to work intensely over the next three weeks on its plans for the Irish border in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Varadkar complained to his fellow leaders that British plans to just turn a blind eye to smuggling and the need for checks at the land border in the event of a no-deal Brexit was a problem for Dublin.

Speaking at the end of the summit on Friday, Varadkar told reporters that the extension to April “gives a little breathing space” for Britain to decide among three options: “No deal, the withdrawal agreement or a much closer relationship with the EU.”

“I honestly don’t know what the most likely option is,” he said.

Macron, in turn, described Brexit as more a “political lesson” than a lengthy technical negotiation during his press conference. “A proposition to leave Europe without a project leads to an impasse,” he said.

It is possible, but unlikely.

The deal Theresa May agreed with the EU says that if her withdrawal agreement is not passed by Parliament by 29 March, then the UK will be granted a short Article 50 extension until 12 April 2019 to propose an alternative way forward.

That might be leaving the European Union without a deal on the 12 April 2019, or requesting a longer extension period. If the latter, then the UK would be expected to take part in European Parliamentary Elections scheduled for between 23 May and 26 May.

If her deal is approved next week, the UK will leave the European Union the day before the elections are held on 22 May 2019.

The French president also explained why the EU27 had rejected May’s initial bid for an extension until the end of June. “It would be the 27 that would have taken on responsibility in case was a no in the British parliament a few days before the deadline [on 29 March] so the blame game would be against the 27.”

“We don’t want to humiliate anyone, we don’t want to push anyone into a corner but at some point we need a framework. We need deadlines and this is why I think trying to organise a crisis summit next week was a bad idea.”

Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, said EU leaders had had “a very candid talk” with the British prime minister on Thursday.

Asked about the petition to cancel Brexit, which had gained more than 3m signatures by Friday, Merkel said she expected it would be discussed in the British parliament, in line with petition rules. “I assume it is going to play a role in the British parliament, but that is going to be a decision for the British side.”

EU officials said that in reality the deadline for the UK to have a new plan and request an extension for consideration at a leaders summit was before 12 April.

“[A request] cannot come at the end of 12 April,” the official said. “That will be too late. It will have to come before so it can be considered by the European council.”

Asked whether the EU was simply “kicking the can down the road”, in a manner similar to the British prime minister’s negotiating strategy over the last two years, the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, told reporters: “The road the can has, in perspective, is a very short one.”

Sources added that the EU would not rule out a second no-deal extension between 12 April and 22 May, should the British government seek to crash out but wish to have a buffer to prepare. “This is a managed no deal,” said one diplomat.