UK election polls: One per cent chance of Labour majority, poll analysis finds

Rebecca Speare-Cole
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn speaks during the televised debate with Conservative leader Boris Johnson: via REUTERS

The likelihood of a Labour majority currently stands at just one per cent, according to a break down of recent election polls.

Election Calculus has taken opinion polls from November 12 to 19 to predict various coalition outcomes, sampling 10,793 people.

The Conservative Party has a staggering 78 per cent chance of winning a majority at the general election on December 12, the new study found.

Meanwhile Labour may have better chances of winning a minority government with the results showing a 10 per cent chance compared to just one per cent for a majority.

Electoral Calculus assumes possibilities of alliances. (Electoral Calculus by Martin Baxter)

The probability of a Tory minority stands at just three per cent while no overall control from any party stands at 9 per cent.

Explaining the methodology, a statement from Electoral Calculus by Martin Baxter said: "Using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

"Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Brexit parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru."

The poll analysis was released before Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn's showdown during a head-to-head ITV leaders debate.

A poll released after the debate by PA showed the Conservatives maintained their 13-point lead over Labour.

Data gathered over the last seven days showed the Tories and Mr Corbyn's party climb one point each between Tuesday and Wednesday, now sitting at 43 per cent and 30 per cent respectively.

The Lib Dems remain the third largest party at 14 per cent, with the Brexit Party falling one point to five per cent, edging closer to the Greens at three per cent.

Mr Johnson and Mr Johnson appeared to emerge evenly from the debate, with the Tories and Labour rising one point from 42 per cent and 29 per cent respectively.

---Watch the latest videos from Yahoo UK---