UK general election 2017: Poll tracker and odds

Ashley Kirk
UK general election polls and odds tracker

Theresa May has called a snap general election for June 8, amid polls that indicate she could win a huge Tory majority in Parliament.

Some polls have the Tories at almost double the vote share of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party, indicating that the most likely outcome of the election would be a landslide victory that would increase her party’s current working majority of 17 in the House of Commons.

Indeed, some experts estimate that the Tories will take as many as 56 seats from Labour, leaving them with a 200-seat lead over the official opposition party.

Follow how the race is shaping up with The Telegraph's poll tracker, which looks at national voting intention from individual polls.

UK General Election 2017 polling

What are the betting odds for the UK general election?

Political pollsters have taken a beating recently after failing to predict a Conservative majority in 2015, a Leave vote last summer and a Donald Trump victory in November.

For those who have lost faith in polling, there is another way of predicting electoral outcomes: ask people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. Many now believe that political betting markets can better predict elections, relying on the wisdom of a crowd of punters to sort and weigh all the probabilities.

Coral's latest odds for the election have Theresa May as most likely to continue as Prime Minister after the election. The latest odds for the party to emerge with the most seats are:

  • Conservative - 1/16
  • Labour - 8/1
  • Lib Dems - 28/1
  • Ukip - 100/1
  • Greens - 500/1

Who is my MP?

What are the key battlegrounds?

The Conservatives are likely to gain a series of key target seats in the upcoming general election, capitalising on their strong position in the polls over the Labour Party. 

An analysis of the 2015 general election results by The Telegraph has shown that around 58 seats in Labour's North and Midlands heartlands are under threat due to the Brexit effect in the upcoming snap election on June 8.

There are 58 Labour-held seats where the Conservatives are fewer than 9,000 votes behind and where the constituents voted Leave in the EU referendum last June – 37 of which are located in the Midlands or in the North of England.

The seat with the narrowest Labour majority is Halifax where the Conservatives finished just 428 votes behind Labour in the 2015 general election. This seat is particularly vulnerable due to the fact that Halifax voted to Leave the EU by 60 per cent.

The Tories will, however, face pressure from enthusiastic EU-backing Lib Dems who will seek to re-gain seats that they lost in the 2015 general election.

Theresa May currently holds Remain-backing Lewes with a majority of 1,083 (2.1 per cent) and Twickenham with a majority of 2,017 (3.3 per cent). Both of these were taken from the Lib Dems by David Cameron in 2015, and Tim Farron's pro-EU party will be seeking to win them back.

Key target constituencies

A word of caution

It's still very early days in this snap-election race. Given the current verdict from the pollsters and the bookmakers it seems unthinkable that the Conservatives could fail to win on June 8.

However, the race could change dramatically once the party manifestos have been launched and the campaign starts in earnest.

For the last six general elections, the polling average 50 days before the election has always been wrong – although this has always given Labour a more generous vote share.

Our poll tracker takes in national polls from a range of UK pollsters. Their individual polls, while of different sample sizes, take in a representative sample.

 

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