UK pensioners to receive up to £938 monthly with Triple Lock under new Labour government

Twenty pound notes in a glass jar lying on its side with a lid labelled pension, on a white background.
-Credit: (Image: Rosemary Calvert)

Following the General Election victory of Labour on July 4, millions of older UK residents can expect their future State Pension payments to be safeguarded by the Triple Lock. This could see them receive up to £938 a month.

The Triple Lock policy ensures that both the New and Basic State Pensions increase annually in line with the highest of three measures: average annual earnings growth from May to July, CPI in the year to September, or 2.5 per cent.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that UK inflation fell to 2.0 per cent in May and is expected to remain on target for the rest of the year. This is crucial for the Triple Lock uprating measure due in mid-October.

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Annual earnings growth, including bonuses, was at 5.9 per cent between February and April. This makes it the highest measure of the Triple Lock and the main factor for the State Pension annual uprating for 2025/26, reports the Daily Record.

However, it's important to note that the earnings growth figure used for the Triple Lock will be released by the ONS on August 13. As it stands, it appears set to be the key driver.

This could mean that nearly 12.7 million State Pensioners across the UK, including over 1.1 million residing in Scotland, could receive up to £234.45 each week, or £937.80 every four-week pay period in the next financial year, as reported by the Daily Record.

State Pension uprating predictions for 2025/26

The New and Basic State Pensions experienced an 8.5 per cent increase in April, reflecting the earnings growth measure of the Triple Lock. This implies that individuals on the full New State Pension now receive a weekly sum of £221.20, or £884.80 every four weeks during the 2024/25 fiscal year.

Those receiving the full Basic State Pension get £169.50 each week, or £678 every four-week pay period.

A 5.9 per cent rise on the current State Pension would result in people receiving:

Full New State Pension - £234.45 each week, £937.80 every 4-week pay period, £12,191.40 over the 2025/26 financial year Full Basic State Pension - £179.65 each week, £718.60 every 4-week pay period, £9,341.80 over the 2025/26 financial year

Please note, these calculations are based on the latest ONS data. The key figure to keep an eye on is the May to July earnings growth figure, which will be released on August 13.

It's also crucial to remember that additional State Pension payments and deferred State Pensions increase annually under the CPI for September. The UK Government typically announces the annual uprating during the Autumn Statement in November.

State Pension and tax

Pensioners will also be interested to see if Sir Keir Starmer decides to unfreeze the Personal Allowance, which has been held at £12,570 since the 2021/22 financial year.

Recent figures from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) reveal that 8.1m (64%) retirees currently pay tax, largely due to additional income from workplace or private pensions on top of their State Pension.

Pension experts at Spencer Churchill estimate that nearly 900,000 more people will surpass the Personal Allowance threshold during the current financial year, with an additional 2m expected before the freeze concludes in 2028 - a timeline established by the outgoing Conservative government.

The full New State Pension is valued at £11,502 for the 2024/25 financial year, leaving just £1,068 before reaching the personal tax threshold. Therefore, anyone with an extra income of £89 or more per month - on top of their State Pension - could face a tax bill the following year.

An individual receiving the full rate of the Basic State Pension will get £8,814 this year. This leaves only £3,756 before the personal tax threshold is breached, equivalent to an additional income of £313 per month.