Is the UK tracking the same trajectory as Spain's 'second wave'?

Spain's spike in coronavirus cases may be a sign of things to come for the UK, the government’s top scientific adviser reportedly fears - and the latest data is beginning to support his concerns.

According to the Times Sir Patrick Vallance told Boris Johnson and Cabinet Ministers in Downing Street on Monday that the spread of coronavirus in the UK could be two to three weeks behind the situation in Spain, which has seen a surge in new cases.

Data on new infections is beginning to corroborate such concern, Telegraph analysis has found, with the UK now broadly on the same trajectory as Spain, though several weeks behind as Sir Patrick suggests.

And there could still be time to avert the same outcome, as the UK has not yet experienced the significant surge in cases seen in Spain.

Spain saw its lowest infection rate per 100,000 people 29 days before the UK, but managed to reduce its infection rate to a lower point - below 10 per 100,000, taking two weeks worth of cases into account.

The infection rate in the UK is now around where Spain was 16 days ago - 14 infections per 100,000 - and the weekly rate of increase is growing from 7 per cent in the week to July 23 to 10 per cent in the week to July 29.

Spain followed a similar rate of increase from its trough, with weekly rises in its infection rate of 10 per cent, three per cent and eight per cent.

It was four weeks after its lowest point that infections began to surge, with weekly rises of 35 per cent and 79 per cent.

It remains to be seen if the UK will follow suit.

However, standing in the UK's favour is that lockdown restrictions have overall remained more stringent than those in Spain, according to a tracker of government responses to the pandemic produced by researchers at Oxford University.

Over the last two weeks the UK has had an stringency score of 64.3, higher than Spain's at 58.7.

Though Spain had a much more stringent lockdown than the UK, which included banning people from outdoor exercise during the peak of the pandemic, the country began to wind down measures earlier and more sharply.

Restrictions have been reimposed across the country in recent weeks, with the Catalan regional government earlier in the month urging some four million people – including all residents of Barcelona – to stay at home and avoid gatherings of more than 10 people.

Spanish confidence that the pandemic is improving has also dramatically fallen off, with polling from YouGov out today finding that just 13 per cent of respondents think the national coronavirus situation is improving - compared to 89 per cent six weeks prior.

Compounding Spain’s problems have been a large influx of tourists, with some European countries blaming new spikes on imported infections from the country. France, like the UK, is advising its citizens to avoid travel to Spain, while Norway has threatened to close its borders with the country.

In addition to a stricter lockdown, the UK is also now testing to a greater extent than Spain, with a 0.6 per cent positivity rate compared to Spain's 4.1 per cent.

Too high a positivity rate - the proportion of tests that return a positive result for Covid-19 - means a country is unlikely to be testing widely enough to find all cases. The WHO has suggested a positive rate of around 3 to 12 per cent as a general benchmark of adequate testing.

Scientists said the removal of lockdown measures meant Britain was now “facing a comeback of community transmission”.

Prof Jose Vazquez-Boland, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, said it was likely that new peaks in incidence lie ahead.

He said: “What we are facing is a comeback of community transmission after removing the lockdown measures. We have to be clear that the efficacy of lockdowns is only temporary.

“There will be a resurgence of new cases every time social restriction measures are lifted as long as the virus remains in circulation.”

Prof James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said that without better isolation of cases, Britain could face “an unfolding tragedy”.

He said: “We and other countries are detecting young people with Covid-19, in February we never noticed them. It seems likely that the virus spreads in this group first but with few symptoms and little illness.

"We know the virus will spread in time from young to old/more vulnerable [people] where we will see hospitalisation, severe illness and death. This will happen in a few weeks if we don’t keep the virus suppressed."

On Tuesday Mr Johnson said “clearly we now face, I’m afraid, the threat of a second wave in other parts of Europe and we just have to be vigilant.”

A Downing Street spokesman said: "The Prime Minister is clear we must remain vigilant and continue to follow the official guidance to keep the virus under control and prevent any second wave."