Ukraine is about to get a missile that could kill Putin
Belatedly fielding a powerful new ballistic missile that could strike as far away as Moscow, Ukraine is about to solve a vexing military problem.
But it’s not the most urgent problem for Ukraine as Russia’s wider war on the country grinds toward its 33rd month.
Ukraine’s Hrim-2 missile is nearly ready for action, Yehor Chernev, the chairman of Ukraine’s delegation to NATO, said recently.
“Believe me, there will soon be concrete results that not only Ukraine but also the Russian Federation will see,” Chernev said.
The Hrim-2 is a single-stage, solid-fuel ballistic missile that can carry an 1,100-pound warhead as far as 310 miles, presumably under inertial guidance. It represents a major step up from Ukraine’s best current battlefield rocket – the 1970s-vintage Tochka.
KB Pivdenne, a missile-maker in Dnipro, in eastern Ukraine, has been working on the Hrim-2 for a decade. It was a low priority in the years before Russia widened its war on Ukraine starting in February 2022: funding was a constant problem.
After Russia widened its war on Ukraine, money was no longer a major problem – but Russian attacks on industrial sites in Dnipro were. Working through the bombardment, Ukrainian engineers finally finished designing and building the first few Hrim-2s. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky announced the first successful test of a new missile – the Hrim-2, apparently – back in August.
The Hrim-2 will give Ukraine its first heavy deep-strike capability – and free the country from restrictions imposed by its most important allies. The United States, the United Kingdom and France have provided Ukraine with precision munitions ranging hundreds of miles. But all three countries bar Ukraine from firing these munitions at targets inside Russia.
These rules have resulted in a firepower imbalance. Russia strikes Ukrainian cities, bases and industrial facilities with thousands of drones and ballistic and cruise missiles every month. The Ukrainians strike back infrequently with mere dozens of much lighter munitions – drones, primarily.
Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have begged their American, British and French counterparts to lift the restrictions on deep strikes using foreign weapons, but to no avail. With the Hrim-2, the Ukrainians won’t have to ask permission. The only limit on Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets up to and beyond Moscow will be the production rate. How fast can KB Pivdenne build Hrim-2s?
As Hrim-2s begin reaching front-line units, expect to see more – and more damaging – Ukrainian attacks on targets inside Russia. Don’t expect these attacks to have an immediate and obvious effect on the front line in Ukraine. A shortage of deep-strike munitions isn’t Ukraine’s biggest problem. The biggest problem is a shortage of trained troops.
Blowing up a Russian airfield, factory or oil refinery can suppress Russian air raids, gradually throttle the supply of heavy weaponry to Russian forces and squeeze the wider Russian economy. Russian president Vladimir Putin might even face the prospect of strikes aimed at him personally, in retaliation for Russia’s many attempts to eliminate Zelensky. But the Hrim-2 can’t prevent Russian regiments from overrunning outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian garrisons in cities and towns along the front line.
As the wider war’s fourth year looms, Russia has an enduring manpower advantage despite registering staggering battlefield losses that recently have averaged around 1,500 killed and wounded troops per day. Ukrainian losses are much lower, but in strategic terms it hardly matters.
Russia is an autocracy with a population of more than 140 million. In control of the media and immune from political opposition, the Kremlin faces scant few constraints on its ability to generate fresh troops. It has consistently managed to sign up 30,000 recruits a month – nearly enough to make good record-high recent losses.
Ukraine, by contrast, is much smaller – just 40 million people – and, as a democracy, contends with serious political constraints. It took the Ukrainian parliament months to finally pass, back in April, a watered-down mobilisation bill that so far has failed to consistently generate the 20,000 or more fresh troops the country’s armed forces need to replenish war-weary brigades and form the new brigades it would need for any serious future offensive.
It’s not for no reason that Russian forces have been slowly but steadily advancing all along the front line in Ukraine for months now. There are just too many Russians for exhausted Ukrainian troops to hold back. Ominously, the Russians are now being reinforced by thousands of North Koreans.
It’s not that Ukraine shouldn’t strike targets deep inside Russia. It should. And with the Hrim-2, it can. But these attacks, while empowering for the Ukrainians and embarrassing for the Russians, won’t turn the tide of the war.