Ultra Conservatives Test Their Strength in Chile Local Elections
(Bloomberg) -- Chile’s local elections will be a test of strength between the traditional right-wing coalition and an ultra-conservative party that surged onto the national stage over the last five years.
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The result of that contest this weekend will set the tone for the presidential vote in a year’s time, which may pit the right against a broad alliance of far-left and center-left parties.
The elections are the first in which Chile’s Partido Republicano, formed in 2019, has put forward candidates for councilors, mayors and regional governors across the entire country. On the campaign trail, its leader Jose Antonio Kast, one of the frontrunners to become the next president, touts many of the same issues as former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump in the US, such as concern over immigration and crime.
“The Partido Republicano speaks to a pragmatic voter that only wants to hear about security, security and security, plus a bit about the economy and an anti-political speech,” said Juan Pablo Lavin, executive director at the pollster Panel Ciudadano UDD.
They will be competing separately from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, which most recently governed the country under former head of state Sebastian Pinera. In contrast to that split, the ruling administration is putting forward a united front in the vote on Saturday and Sunday, with its candidates running under one list.
As such, most eyes will be on the opposition, said Claudio Fuentes, a political scientist at Universidad Diego Portales.
“This election marks a confrontation within the right, with a political dispute over hegemony in the sector,” Fuentes said. “The Partido Republicano is likely to end up better positioned for next year’s contest.”
Voting starts at 8 a.m. on Saturday and ends at 6 p.m. on Sunday. Here are some of the other topics to watch as the results come through on Sunday night.
Other Key Points to Watch
The right-wing opposition, while split, is still expected to win control of about 35% of municipalities and about half of regional governors, both Lavin and Fuentes agreed. Anything approaching 40% of municipalities would be an achievement for the sector, they said
Should Claudio Orrego — an independent and former member of the Partido Democrata Cristiano — win the first round of voting to become Governor of the Santiago Metropolitan Region, “he would be very well positioned for the presidential vote,” Fuentes said
Meanwhile, President Gabriel Boric’s party — Frente Amplio — will be paying close attention to the performance of Tomas Vodanovic, who is running for reelection as mayor of Maipu, one of the biggest municipalities in the country, Fuentes said
Frente Amplio will also be watching for the results in emblematic districts such as Ñuñoa and Viña del Mar, where their members are currently mayors
Finally, analysts will keep an eye on the Partido Social Cristiano, which was formed just two years ago by Chile’s Evangelical community. It is the first time the sector that represented almost a third of Chileans in 2017 — the most recent data available — has put their weight behind a single party
--With assistance from Eduardo Thomson.
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