What could Donald Trump's election victory mean for the UK?

The UK government is in a "difficult position already" with US president-elect Donald Trump, the Tories have warned.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride criticised past public comments made by senior Labour figures about Trump, amid fears the UK's so-called "special relationship" with the US could be in jeopardy after Trump's election victory.

The government has had to fend off questions about previous negative comments made about Trump, including those by foreign secretary David Lammy.

It comes amid fears a trade war could erupt, after Trump said on the campaign trail he would tax all goods imported into the US as a way of protecting American jobs.

Stride told BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Thursday: "This government has ended up in a position where it is in a difficult position already with the Trump administration, based on the comments that have been made."

The incoming Trump administration could make a dramatic shift in the way the superpower handles foreign affairs, particularly in regards to ongoing conflicts such as those in the Middle East and in Ukraine; works with its international partners; deals with trade; and how it tackles global issues such as the climate crisis.

In a May 2024 survey, many Britons said they were concerned a Trump victory would increase the likelihood of major conflict.

Here’s what you need to know about what a Trump win could mean for the UK.

How has the UK government reacted?

Even before Trump was formally declared victor, the prime minister, Keir Starmer, congratulated him on an "historic election win" and said the UK-US special relationship will "continue to prosper".

The PM reiterated his congratulations during prime minister's questions in the House of Commons, telling MPs: “Can I begin by congratulating president-elect Trump on his historic election victory. As the closest of allies, the UK and US will continue to work together to protect our shared values of freedom and democracy."

He confirmed that he and foreign secretary David Lammy met Trump for dinner "just a few weeks ago" and discussed a number of issues of "global significance". "It was a very constructive exercise," he added.

The PM also reiterated his commitment to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, amid concerns about changes in US foreign policy under Trump.

Special relationship 'will continue to prosper'

The phrase “special relationship” has been used by both nations for decades to describe the closeness between the two countries, but there has been some cause for friction recently.

In October, Trump's campaign filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint against the Labour Party, accusing it of "blatant foreign interference" in the US election.

It had emerged that Labour activists had been campaigning in the US on behalf of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, although Starmer tried to play down the row, saying his party has long sent volunteers to US elections and that they were acting in a personal capacity.

Speaking ahead of the election, Katie M Pruszynski, an academic specialising in Trump and US politics at the University of Sheffield, told Yahoo News: “The special relationship between the US and the UK transcends whichever government is in place either here in the UK or in the US at any one time.

“Whoever wins, the ties between the UK and the US will remain. But on different policies, you'll start to see some real divergence – and that's where you'll start to see some of that diplomatic pressure coming through.”

It is with that in mind that Labour had been trying to “quietly court” Team Trump, even when they were in opposition. Foreign secretary Lammy had reportedly been making inroads with Republicans, having met Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance several times. He told the BBC he believed he could find common ground with Vance through their Christian faith and similar background.

Prior to their attempt to find common ground, Vance once branded the UK an “Islamist state”, while Lammy likened Trump to a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath”.

Starmer and Lammy also met Trump for dinner a few weeks prior to polling day, as confirmed by the prime minister to the Commons.

As Trump neared the 270 votes needed to win, Lammy joined Starmer in offering his congratulations, saying on X: “The UK has no greater friend than the US, with the special relationship being cherished on both sides of the Atlantic for more than 80 years.

“We look forward to working with you and @JDVance in the years ahead.”

'Erratic' Trump offers a 'potential for chaos'

Trump has rarely been out of the headlines since he shot to fame as the face of the US version of The Apprentice. In fact, he was prime magazine fodder as a businessman well before that.

Since his presidential run in 2016, Trump has been dogged with controversy, ranging from him storing confidential files at his Mar-a-Lago complex, civil charges for sexual harassment, and his role in inciting the Capitol riots in Washington, DC, following his false claims that the election was stolen.

Trump became the first president to be impeached twice, and is the first former president to have been convicted of a felony, with a jury in Manhattan finding him guilty of 34 criminal charges in May.

In a civil case in May last year, a jury concluded that Trump had sexually assaulted and defamed journalist E Jean Carroll, and awarded her $5m.

For Professor Paul Whiteley, who specialises in electoral behaviour at the Department for Government at the University of Essex, Trump returning to power means he is also bringing in “a potential for chaos”.

“The trouble with Trump is nobody knows what he's going to do, and he doesn't even know and that's the problem,” he told Yahoo News, stressing that a second term in power could embolden him to make more drastic decisions.

“If you have a clear strategy, you can deal with it and understand it. But when somebody is so erratic and unpredictable, then it's much harder,” he added.

'America first' policy could impact trade

Trump’s "America first' policy is likely to see the US turning inward, levying heavy taxes on trading partners abroad to stimulate trade closer to home.

When previously in office, Trump imposed a series of tariffs on China, then later Canada, Mexico and the European Union, in hopes of boosting US trade.

This time around, the Trump administration has said it would considering imposing a tariff of up to 60% on all imports from China.

Bronwen Maddox, director of the Chatham House think-tank, said “tariffs” are “probably one of the first things that Britain will notice” under a Trump presidency and that it wouldn't be good for economic growth that the Labour government is looking for.

She told the PA news agency: “We don’t know how quickly Trump will move on it, but I would think very quickly – it’s one of the things he’s promised his followers.”

She added: “We don’t quite know what the tariffs will be and on which goods. Goods on China going into the US will hit global growth and tariffs on other countries like Europe and the UK, they will affect our ability to sell things to the US.

“So it’s not good for exactly the kind of economic growth that Keir Starmer is putting so much weight on.”

Speaking ahead of the election, a former policy adviser to the business and trade secretary, Allie Renison, spoke in a similar vein saying, that she was unsure that Starmer would be that keen to do it. “It will bring a lot of political criticism," she added.

It is for that reason Renison believes the relationship between Starmer and Trump will be “very different” from the one between Johnson and Trump, who apparently had each other’s private mobile phone numbers, saying: “I think with Trump, it'd be a very, very different order and basically be a much more defensive relationship."

But while Trump may double down on his “America first” isolationist policies, that doesn’t necessarily spell bad news for the UK.

Whiteley said: “The idea is that the United States doesn't withdraw from the world when it comes to economy or trade, but it deals much more with its friends than its enemies. Of course, that would help Britain and it would help the EU.

“The essence of MAGA ['make America great again] is traditional. It goes back a long way in the United States’ history of isolationism. But Trump woke the world up when he pivoted his policy to foster trade agreements between the US and China, which, of course, the Biden administration has kept going.

“So some of the things he did were internationalist, in a way, calling out countries that were taking advantage of the international order.”

US approach to conflict could change

A Trump win will likely impact US foreign policy, especially in relation to Joe Biden’s approach to the Russian-Ukraine war.

While the Biden administration has provided the most financial aid for Ukraine out of any country in the world, experts believe that Trump would prefer to bring about the closure of the conflict by supporting the Russian campaign.

Both the Conservative and Labour UK governments have been vocal supporters of Ukraine, pledging aid and sending UK troops to help Kyiv’s forces fire long-range missiles earlier this year.

“Trump and the Republican Party talk very strongly about wanting to bring about an end to the Ukraine war as soon as possible," Pruszynski said ahead of the election.

“Now, the UK does too, but it comes at it from a different place. The UK has said that Russia should never have encroached upon Ukrainian territory, and Russia must be removed from Ukraine."

Pruszynski added: “Trump is far more open to the idea that actually it shouldn't really be an American problem at all – it's a problem between Russia and Ukraine. The way that they see doing that is withdrawing aid from Ukraine, which would almost certainly, put Russia at a much greater advantage.

“You'd start to see some progress towards the end of the war quite quickly, but not in the way that the UK or the current US administration would like."

Chatham House's Maddox said she thinks Donald Trump will “pressure for some kind of deal” over the war in Ukraine. “I’d be surprised if he didn’t press for some kind of freezing of the conflict … about where it is now," she said.

“That doesn’t mean handing those lands that Russia has captured over to Russia. It could mean some kind of simply ceasefire” with the “status of those lands left to the future", Maddox added.

After Trump's election win, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was among the first world leaders to congratulate the new president and highlighted the “strong bipartisan support” in the US for his country in its fight against Russia.

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together," Zelensky said.

“We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership," he added.

“I am looking forward to personally congratulating President Trump and discussing ways to strengthen Ukraine’s strategic partnership with the United States.”

When it comes to the conflict in the Middle East, there may be less divergence. Both the UK and the US – along with countries such as Germany and Australia – have supported Israel's right to defend itself in its war with Hamas and Hezbollah.

However, while Starmer’s government has called for a ceasefire and a two-state solution, Trump has branded himself “Israel’s protector”, even going as far as to warn Jewish voters against supporting his rival.

Indeed, it is when Trump has the most conviction, that experts believe he can be the most dangerous – and it is for that reason any country that considers him an ally could still struggle in his wake. “We don't know what he is going to do. That unnerves a lot of diplomats and political leaders,” Whiteley added.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Trump's likely win, posting on X: "Dear Donald and Melania Trump, Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!

"Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America."

Trump's Nato stance watched closely

Trump's stance on Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) will be watched closely by Russia, who have long criticised the expansion of the military alliance.

Trump was a strong critic Nato during his first term as president and has complained about US tax dollars funding European security and Nato members not spending enough.

On Wednesday, Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte praised Trump for his work persuading member states to ramp up defence spending, saying Nato was now “stronger, larger, and more united”.