The NBA and NHL playoffs are in full swing and baseball is well underway. However, some people still need their football. The USFL has completed three weeks of their inaugural season and prepares for Week 4 this upcoming weekend. We're starting to get more data to paint a picture of what to expect in this new league, and oddsmakers are adjusting as well.
Unders have been profitable
Through three weeks of USFL football, if you've bet the under in every game, your bankroll is in good shape. Through 12 games, the under has come in eight times compared to just four times where the game went over the total. The average total through 12 games so far has been just 38.3 points.
The Michigan Panthers and New Orleans Breakers have seen all three of their games go under the total so far. The only teams who have winning records for over bettors are the Birmingham Stallions and Houston Gamblers, who have both seen two of their three games go over the total.
Spring football has always been lower scoring than the NFL and college football in the many iterations and attempts we have seen. The talent level is obviously not as high and points are harder to come by.
Oddsmakers are adjusting
With unders cashing at a 66.7% rate through three weeks, oddsmakers are adjusting for what they've seen on the field.
The average total in Week 1 was 42 points. It bumped up to 44 points in Week 2, but then came back down in Week 3, where the average total was just 41 points. However, after three of four games went under the total last week, oddsmakers have made even more of a move.
The average total for games in Week 4 of the USFL is just 37.5 points. The total for Philadelphia-Michigan is set at just 33.5-points, the lowest total we've seen in the league so far this season. The New Jersey-Pittsburgh total is set at 34.5-points, tying the previous low.
For comparison, the two lowest totals of this past NFL season were 36.5-points. Those two games were the last two games of the Giants season against Chicago and Washington, where the Giants clearly had given up on Joe Judge and were trotting out a combination of Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm at quarterback.
With the totals in the USFL dropping to extreme lows, there's always a chance that oddsmakers over adjust and create value on the other side. However, just like fans are still trying to figure out the league, oddsmakers are in a similar spot. Will the money train on unders continue in Week 4 despite the best effort of the sportsbooks?