Advertisement

Brexit deal: how will the Westminster factions vote?

An anti-Brexit demonstrator outside the Houses of Parliament.
An anti-Brexit demonstrator outside the Houses of Parliament. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

If the tribal divisions of Brexit are complicated enough, then things become even more atomised when it comes to how the various groups in the Commons might vote on Theresa May’s deal and why. Here are the main factions and their leading personalities.

For the deal

• Government payroll and loyalists

The biggest single grouping, but almost certainly not numerous enough to get the deal through. May has experienced sufficient government resignations over her deal to be fairly sure that, by Tuesday, any ministers or aides remaining will line up in the “yes” lobby. These comprise about 150 MPs in all.

With her will be the Conservative loyalists, those the whips can safely put down in their support tally. This group would normally comprise every Tory MP bar the occasional malcontent, but such is the divisiveness of Brexit, plus May’s fast-eroding authority, that this will be a greatly reduced number. Its anyone’s guess how many this will be.

Group figurehead: Theresa May, of course. The PM will close the five-day debate on Tuesday evening ahead of the vote. Don’t expect any rhetorical fireworks, just a patient – dull even – re-stating of the government’s case.

• The ‘Brexit delivery group’

This is a loose alliance of Tories who, while not always entirely enthusiastic about May’s plan, or in some cases even about Brexit itself, believe it has to be delivered, and that the PM’s proposal is the safest way to do this.

Group figurehead: Simon Hart. The Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MP was formerly a remain supporter, but now heads this contingent.

• The backbench plan B squad

A small contingent – mainly Tory backbenchers Nick Boles, Nicky Morgan and Oliver Letwin – who have put together a bill with a novel solution to ending the Brexit deadlock if May’s plan is voted down. Their idea would give MPs on the liaison committee, which groups together the chairs of key select committees, responsibility for coming up with a new plan if May cannot. Despite this forward-thinking approach, all three have said they will vote for the deal on Tuesday. A fair number of other Tories not involved in the actual plan are likely to feel the same way, at least on the idea of seeking a very different new plan if May loses the vote.

Group figurehead: Nick Boles. He is by no means the leader, but has had the misfortune of being labelled a “coup plotter” in some papers, so takes on the role.

• Labour rebels

May and her ministers had hoped this would be a potentially big and pivotal group – potentially even sufficient to cancel out her malcontents and deliver victory. The hope was that apart from avowedly pro-leave Labour MPs, a number who represent strongly pro-Brexit seats could be tempted to join them.

However, many of these have melted away, leaving as confirmed Labour supporters of the plan only John Mann, Jim Fitzpatrick and Kevin Barron – all of whom have been in parliament for a number of years and will face down the criticism that will follow. Also likely to vote for the deal is Frank Field, who resigned the Labour whip last year over worries about antisemitism.

Some diehard Labour Brexiters are not in this group, for example Kate Hoey, who shares the DUP’s worries about the Irish border backstop plan and has said she will vote against the deal.

Group figurehead: John Mann. The Bassetlaw MP is defiantly individualistic, and has long charted his own course in parliament.

Against the deal

• Labour frontbench and loyalists

For all May’s belated talk of a cross-party approach to Brexit, there have never been any serious efforts to get Labour onside, and Jeremy Corbyn and his team will vote against the deal on Tuesday. Aside from their objections to the specifics of the plan, the Labour frontbench has political considerations to keep in mind, not least its primary goal of triggering a general election and getting into government.

While they have carefully danced around the specifics, recent comments by Corbyn, John McDonnell and others indicate Labour plans to trigger a no-confidence vote in May’s government if she loses on the Brexit vote. If May lost the confidence vote, an election would almost certainly result. If May won the confidence vote, Corbyn would have to consider whether to start backing a second referendum.

Group figurehead: Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader will be hoping for a margin of defeat for May that weakens her position beyond repair.

• Moderate leave-minded Labour MPs

Last week there was clearly hope that some Labour members representing strongly pro-leave areas could be tempted into the “yes” division, with the government accepting an amendment from three of them which gave further guarantees on employment rights after Brexit.

However, the trio behind the amendment – the Don Valley MP, Caroline Flint, Gareth Snell, who has represented Stoke-on-Trent Central since 2017, and Lisa Nandy, MP for Wigan – are all understood to have decided to vote against the plan, at least for now. It is possible they could change sides if May presents an amended deal, but any changes would need to be more than tweaks.

• ERG/Tory Brexiters

The biggest group of Conservatives who will defy the PM. They might have failed to oust her from Downing Street in December, but now have the chance to damage her through the Commons. The group which is most ideologically tied to its position, this contingent ranges from perennial backbenchers, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood, to those who quit the cabinet in protest at May’s plans, notably Boris Johnson, David Davis and Dominic Raab.

One factor of this group has been the way leading members have gradually shifted, as the timetable ran down, from arguing they could negotiate a better deal with Brussels to insisting that a no-deal departure would be manageable, even a good thing.

Group figurehead: Both Rees-Mogg and Johnson believe they are, and Raab probably believes he should be.

• DUP

May’s still semi-official coalition partners have not, contrary to the wishful thinking in No 10 before Christmas, had their fears over the backstop assuaged by positive if somewhat opaque words from Brussels. Without them, May’s plan seems toast.

Group figurehead: Nigel Dodds, the party’s Westminster leader, and Brexit spokesman.

• Tories/Labour for a second referendum

They might be divided by party lines, but many of them line up at the same “people’s vote” rallies and they have the same ultimate goal: giving voters another say. On the Conservative side these include Sarah Wollaston and former universities minister Jo Johnson. The Labour contingent is more numerous, most visibly Chuka Umunna. You could also count the sole Green MP, Caroline Lucas, as a key advocate of the idea.

Group figurehead: Anna Soubry. The Tory remainer has become something of a lightning rod for Brexit anger over the second referendum idea, receiving abuse outside parliament and death threats.

• Liberal Democrats

The party is publicly committed to reversing the Brexit process, and its MPs will surely line up with Vince Cable to vote against May’s plan.

• SNP

The other major Westminster party which is officially against any type of Brexit, its 35 MPs will oppose the plan.