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Why Dark Phoenix is tracking to make lowest X-Men box office debut yet

Photo credit: 20th Century Fox
Photo credit: 20th Century Fox

From Digital Spy

X-Men: Dark Phoenix might be the "culmination" of the franchise, but it could be ending the X-Men series on a bit of a downer.

It's been reported that Dark Phoenix is tracking for a very unwanted record – the lowest US box office opening of the series to date. If it ends up opening with only $50 million as tracking suggests, that'd be below The Wolverine's $53.1 million debut, and even the original X-Men's $54.5 million almost two decades ago.

Interestingly enough, the biggest US opening for an X-Men movie (outside of the two Deadpool movies) is X-Men: The Last Stand's $102.8 million bow. And it's Dark Phoenix's connection to the much-maligned The Last Stand that might factor into the lack of buzz around the movie.

Photo credit: 20th Century Fox
Photo credit: 20th Century Fox

Having seen the classic 'Dark Phoenix' comics storyline messed up once on screen, maybe there's not the excitement from X-Men fans to see if they got it right second time around? Remakes often trade on the nostalgia element and love for the original, but it seems that's just not there for Dark Phoenix, and none of the marketing to date has changed that.

The trailers have even gone as far as to spoil a major death in the movie, which we won't mention here in case you haven't been spoiled yet. Its intent was to show that Dark Phoenix is a different breed of superhero movie, one where there are consequences, but The Last Stand also offed a major character and it didn't exactly help that movie.

We've also seen a shift in the marketing towards the fact that, following the Disney-Fox deal, this is likely the last X-Men movie of this particular series. (It's almost like everyone's forgotten about The New Mutants.)

Photo credit: 20th Century Fox
Photo credit: 20th Century Fox

The problem there though is that Dark Phoenix comes out a little over a month after the release of Avengers: Endgame. That also traded heavily on being the culmination of a decade of movies and ended up delivering some major deaths too, as well as marking the end for several major characters in other ways.

X-Men technically has the edge on being a long-running superhero franchise, given that the first movie came out in 2000. However, it's never reached the box office heights of the MCU and also had a mid-series reboot with X-Men: First Class, so it's unclear whether it's the "culmination" of everything – or just everything since First Class.

Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige might not be worried about "superhero fatigue", but as the recent performance for Hellboy shows, it can affect superhero movies outside of the MCU.

It doesn't help either that Dark Phoenix has been delayed a couple of times from its original November 2018 release date. That was for reshoots, a common thing with most major blockbusters, but when carried out on a movie that was already low on buzz, it makes it an even easier target for critics.

Photo credit: 20th Century Fox
Photo credit: 20th Century Fox

And if you think that's all the challenges that Dark Phoenix is facing at opening big at the box office, there's another one too in the form of X-Men: Apocalypse.

Coming off the well-received and commercially successful X-Men: Days of Future Past, Apocalypse struggled with both the critics and at the box office. While not on the scale of The Last Stand, Apocalypse is still a major disappointment in the X-Men series and the memory of it doesn't help to build up anticipation for Dark Phoenix.

Photo credit: 20th Century Fox
Photo credit: 20th Century Fox

There is hope though.

Things might look bleak at the moment, but that could all change when reviews land for Dark Phoenix. If positive enough, they could persuade X-Men fans to go and see the movie on opening weekend, helping it to avoid the ignominy of being the lowest US debut of the series.

Other X-Men movies have performed significantly better overseas too, so even if Dark Phoenix's US box office run isn't huge, it could be boosted by strong returns elsewhere. Both Apocalypse and Days of Future Past made around 70% of their overall haul outside of the US.

Dark Phoenix could yet rise from the flames.

X-Men: Dark Phoenix is released in UK cinemas on June 5 and US cinemas on June 7.


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