Why has Mark Drakeford been so powerful in Wales for so long?
Compared to the merry-go-round at Westminster, the faces at the top table of Welsh politics only change much more slowly. Yet even in this calm sea, there are a small number of people whose ever presence seems to confound the laws of political gravity. Most prominent among these is Mark Drakeford.
Last week Wales' third First Minister in the space of seven months announced her new cabinet. Front and centre of it was Mark Drakeford who has taken the role of minister for finance and Welsh language. This is a big job, the finance minister is the Welsh equivalent of the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
It seems hard to believe that just six months ago, the Cardiff West MP said he was stepping back from frontline politics. When it comes to Mark Drakeford and Welsh politics, a merry-go-round isn’t the right analogy. More appropriate is a spirograph. For a quarter of a century, the bespectacled social services professor has been that central point which, whether in the background or in front of the camera, that the rest of Welsh politics has swirled around.
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Whether it has been as Rhodri Morgan’s special advisor, finance minister, health minister or First Minister, the understated former social worker has been a constant for post devolution Welsh Labour. So how has he done it? How has a man who has never really courted a public profile simultaneously become the most recognisable Welsh politician and maintained two and a half decades at the heart of Welsh political life? Having interviewed him dozens of times during the most turbulent times, I believe I can provide some insight on this.
People want him there
The only way that a politician maintains their position in cabinet after cabinet is that people want them there. Eluned Morgan has put Mark Drakeford in both her initial cabinet and her most recent one despite him previously stating he was looking forward to stepping away from official government roles. Carwyn Jones also made him a regular fixture.
Analytical and detail obsessed
There are a lot of reasons why people have criticised the former first minister. Some unfair, some perfectly reasonable. But one thing you can never say about Mr Drakeford is that he is a slouch when it comes to getting his head round his brief.
The MS for Cardiff West is, for want of a better word, a nerd. His background in academia is obvious whenever he speaks about the nitty gritty of policy. He loves it. He loves learning about it and, as anyone who has interviewed him can attest, he loves talking about it.
As a political leader, you know that when you appoint Mark Drakeford to a position he is going to throw himself into it. For positions like finance minister, knowing the details isn’t desirable, it is a prerequisite. His understanding of the financial situation will underpin every decision that the Welsh Government makes between now and the 2026 election. You need to know your stuff to do this.
Now, this knowledge can have a downside for the politician that appoints him. Because Mark Drakeford knows his stuff he can also be very sure, boarding on stubborn, that what he has decided is the correct course of action. This stubborn strain was seen in both interviews and decision making especially during the Covid period.
He brings the party together
Perhaps nothing sums up how effective Mr Drakeford has been as a unifying figure for Welsh Labour like how quickly things fell apart after he left. Within weeks of Vaughan Gething taking the role Labour MSs quickly turned on each other with leaks, backbiting and rebellions. During the first three months of Vaughan Gething there was more public turbulence within the Welsh Labour group than there had been in the previous six years of Mark Drakeford’s time as leader. This isn’t to say that there weren't disagreements before, just that they never split out into the public sphere to such a degree.
A key reason for this is because of how Mr Drakeford has managed to position himself as a politician. He is the embodiment of what Welsh Labour has been over the last 100 years. He is to the left of the UK party. He literally coined the phrase “clear red water”. He is a first language Welsh speaking advocate for maximum devolution. I remember him using his final conference speech to call on UK Labour (then not in power) to push for proportional representation and further devolution. The room in Llandudno went wild and the only people not clapping were Keir Starmer and then shadow Welsh secretary Jo Stevens.
Despite his long standing aim to keep Welsh Labour as definably different to UK Labour there is still no doubt that, at his heart, he is a party man. Despite misgivings with the wider party sometimes you can never get him to be even slightly critical of the UK wide Labour Party. While he will sometimes adopt an almost grandfatherly tone when describing what he thinks UK Labour could do differently (a tone which infuriates his critics and leads to accusations of arrogance) he will never outright criticise the UK leadership. This tightrope he has long walked has enabled him to stay at the heart of Welsh politics.
This is all about to be challenged
This good soldier tone which he has long struck is about to be put to its hardest test. As finance minister he faces a daunting task. There is an argument it will be even harder than the one that faces Jeremy Miles as health minister.
That is because Mark Drakeford is going to have a key role in deciding where the axe is going to fall on Wales’ public services. It has been made clear that there will be little to no money coming to Wales from Westminster before the election in 2026. After standing in the Senedd and decrying the Tories for withholding HS2 cash and starving Wales’ schools and hospitals for the last six years, there will be nowhere to turn now except his own party.
Will he loudly fight for Wales across a red reservoir of his own making? Or will he simply smile with gratitude content that the person shafting Wales is at least wearing a red rosette?