Who will be the top scorer at the World Cup?
England's Harry Kane enters as the co-favorite to win the Golden Boot in Qatar after he won the Golden Boot with six goals in the 2018 World Cup as England made the semifinals.
The Golden Boot winner typically plays for a team that goes deep in the tournament. After all, more games equal more opportunities for goals. And six goals is likely the Golden Boot target. Colombia's James Rodriguez won the Golden Boot in 2014 with six and so did Ronaldo in 2002 for Brazil. Five goals was enough to win the Golden Boot in both 2006 and 2010.
If you're looking to bet the winner of the Golden Boot, here's what you need to know. Unlike FIFA, BetMGM does not use assists as a tiebreaker. If multiple players tie for the most goals in the tournament, all bets on those tied players will pay out at lower odds.
England F Harry Kane (+700)
Kane’s the only true goal-scoring threat at center forward for England and there’s no real option behind him. He’ll only get subbed off if England has a big lead or if he’s injured. If it’s the latter, England is in trouble. If you think England is going to win its first World Cup since 1966, you should pair your England bet with a bet on Kane for top scorer.
France F Kylian Mbappe (+700)
Mbappe scored four goals in the 2018 World Cup as France went on to victory. He’s a risky pick along with his other teammates. France has so many goal-scoring threats that it’s easy to see goals spread between Mbappe, Karim Benzema, Antoine Griezmann and others. And the recent record for defending World Cup champions isn’t great either. Is this a France team that can buck that trend?
France F Karim Benzema (+1000)
Benzema wasn’t a part of that 2018 World Cup team so he’ll be looking to make a big impact. But is he fully healthy? He says he’s fit for the World Cup but hasn’t made a start in three weeks for Real Madrid. To go along with the entry on Mbappe, we’re not sure who will be France’s designated penalty taker or if there will be a rotation. That’s important to know. Griezmann scored three penalties in the 2018 World Cup.
Brazil F Neymar (+1100)
Neymar scored just twice in the 2018 World Cup as Brazil was eliminated by Belgium in the quarterfinals. Like France, Brazil has an embarrassment of riches up front, but Neymar will undoubtedly be Brazil’s penalty taker at the World Cup. Betting the star player of the team favored to win the tournament isn’t a terrible idea.
Argentina F Lionel Messi (+1200)
We’re a little surprised that Messi isn’t in the top four on the board. This could be his last World Cup, Argentina is on a historic win streak and Messi is in great form. We’ll be very surprised if Argentina isn’t in the semifinals and Messi isn’t one of the top goal scorers in the tournament.
Portugal F Cristiano Ronaldo (+1400)
We’d advise you to avoid betting on Ronaldo. Sure, he could turn in a phenomenal performance in what’s his last World Cup but he hasn’t been playing much lately for Manchester United and hasn’t been great when he’s been on the field for a while. Just like the Red Devils, it may be time for Portugal to move on from a Ronaldo-centric approach. And the team has plenty of talent to do that too.
Belgium F Romelu Lukaku (+1600)
Lukaku is back in Serie A after a disastrous second stint at Chelsea and has been a terror for Belgium in recent years as he’s shifted across the width of the field to attack vulnerable spots in opposing defenses. Vulnerability is an issue for the Belgium defense and we’re wary that Belgium’s age at the back will derail the team’s World Cup hopes.
Spain F Alvaro Morata (+2500)
Morata has 27 goals in 57 appearances for the Spanish national team and scored three goals during Euro 2020. You can do worse than the top goal-scoring threat from a team that’s favored to at least make the quarterfinals.
Argentina F Lautaro Martinez (+2500)
Martinez could be the man that benefits from Lionel Messi’s brilliance and opposing defenses’ attention towards his legendary teammate. Martinez has blossomed in recent years and already has 40 caps for Argentina at the age of 25.
Brazil F Vinicius Jr. (+2500)
Similar to Martinez, Vinicius’ speed could be the perfect complement to Neymar and take advantage of increased attention on his star teammate. Gabriel Jesus at +3300 may be also worth a look. Richarlison, meanwhile, is at +2500. We’re confident there won’t be enough goals to go around to make them all Golden Boot contenders.
Long shots to look at
Germany MF Leroy Sane (+5000)
This German team may not have the massive name recognition among its squad as previous years, but this is a solid young group that’s anchored by core veterans with World Cup experience. Sane has been phenomenal for Bayern Munich and could easily be Germany’s top scorer.
Portugal MF Bruno Fernandes (+8000)
If Ronaldo isn’t the guy for Portugal any longer, why can’t it be Fernandes? He could be poised to have a big tournament, though Ronaldo will undoubtedly still be the team’s penalty taker as long as he’s on the field.
Don’t bet these players
Portugal F Diogo Jota (+3300)
He’s missing the World Cup due to injury and isn’t even in the Portugal squad. We’re not sure why he’s on the board.
Senegal F Sadio Mane (+6600)
It was revealed Tuesday that Mane will miss Senegal's first games of the World Cup because of a left knee injury suffered while playing for Bayern Munich.
Mexico F Raul Jimenez (+10000)
Jimenez hasn’t played since August and may end up playing more as a sub this World Cup.