A Yes vote in 2014 would have seen an independent Scotland begin life £13.3 billion in the red

Scottish deficit put at £13.3 billion - 2017 Getty Images
Scottish deficit put at £13.3 billion - 2017 Getty Images

Scotland would have begun life as an independent nation with a massive £13.3 billion deficit if voters had backed separation in 2014, official Scottish Government figures reveal. 

The revenue and spending statistics show the country is in the red to tune of 8.3 per cent of GDP, more than three times the UK figure of 2.4 per cent and the biggest gap between the two since Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers) figures were first published in 1998.

The deficit is higher than any EU member state and double that of Spain, the next highest.

Pro-Union parties said the statistics showed an independent Scotland would have faced “unprecedented” levels of austerity and accused the SNP of “deception” ahead of the vote three years ago.

Alex Salmond, the then First Minister, set March 24, 2016 as "independence day" in the event of a Yes vote.

The crash in the oil price is largely to blame for the deficit, with the country’s projected share of oil revenues amounting to just £208 million in 2016/17.

oil - Credit: PA
Crash in the oil price largely to blame for Scotland's fiscal position Credit: PA

That is a slight increase on oil revenues of £56 million for the previous year, but contrasts with predictions from Mr Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon before the independence vote of revenues between £6.8 billion and £7.9 billion in the first year of independence.

The SNP White Paper on separation also predicted a public spending deficit in the first year of between £2.7-5.5 billion - up to £10 billion wide of the mark.

The respected Fraser of Allander Institute said there were two reasons why Scotland had a larger negative fiscal balance than the UK - North Sea revenues and the fact that public spending per head is higher north of the border by more than £1,400 per person.

It said this reflected the fact that Scotland spends more on devolved services, like health, education and economic development, and has higher spending on some key welfare programmes.

The figures reveal the overall deficit is down from £14.8 billion in 2014/15, but also show that Scotland’s borrowing per person is £2,453, compared to £704 for the rest of the UK, while the country contributed eight per cent of UK tax last year but received 9.2 per cent of UK spending.

The Scottish Conservatives said the Gers figures showed the public spending was £1,437 per head higher in Scotland, and when the difference in taxes raised per head was added - a gap of £312 - it meant the “Union dividend” was £1,750 per head.

Murdo Fraser, Scottish Conservative finance spokesman, said the details confirmed Scotland was better off as part of the UK, adding: “The truth is that when times are tough, as they have been in Scotland over the last few years, we can rely on the weight of the whole UK to ensure schools, hospitals and public services remain decently funded.

“These figures also confirm just how wrong the SNP got it during the referendum campaign. In 2014, Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon looked Scottish families in the eye and insisted we’d be better off.

“In fact, in the first year of independence, Scotland would have been staring at the biggest deficit in Europe.”

He said that rather than “banging on and on about independence” Ms Sturgeon must focus on using “the huge powers at her disposal to try and build up Scotland’s economy, so we close the gap between the amount we spend and the amount we earn”.

He added: “These figures confirm that her independence day – set for March 2016 – would have been our insolvency day. That is the bullet we dodged by voting No.”

derek mackay - Credit: Corbis
Derek Mackay says there are optimistic signs Credit: Corbis

David Mundell, the Scottish Secretary, said the figures were a “cause for concern” and showed how much was still to be done to improve Scotland’s economy.

He added: “They also highlight the value of pooling and sharing resources around the UK.  Being part of a strong UK has protected our living standards, and that’s one reason the people of Scotland clearly rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s plan for a second independence referendum at the election.”

However, Ms Sturgeon said Scotland's economy remained strong, growing nearly four times faster than the UK in the last quarter, adding: "These figures reflect Scotland's finances under current constitutional arrangements. However, they show that our investment in key industries, such as the life-science sector, is providing a real boost to our onshore economy. By continuing to invest in key sectors, we will ensure Scotland remains a productive and competitive country.

"The lower oil price had an impact on North Sea revenues and the wider economy last year. However, it is encouraging to see an improvement in the overall fiscal balance and that onshore revenues grew at their fastest rate in nearly twenty years.”

Derek Mackay, the Finance Minister, said it was encouraging that Scotland’s fiscal balance improved by nearly 10 per cent last year and claimed there were signs of confidence increasing among North Sea operators.