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New Zealand election: Will 37-year-old former Blair advisor Jacinda Ardern topple Bill English?

Jacinda Ardern speaks with her front bench at her first press conference at Parliament in Wellington on August 1, 2017 - AFP
Jacinda Ardern speaks with her front bench at her first press conference at Parliament in Wellington on August 1, 2017 - AFP

New Zealanders go to the polls on Saturday in the most volatile and hard-fought race in recent history, which could usher in a change in openness to migration and trade and the central bank's approach to monetary policy.

Volatile opinion polls have shown a neck-and-neck race, although the ruling National Party of Prime Minister Bill English has led in recent polls, with two giving it a lead of nearly 10 points.

A change in the Labour Party leadership last month turned what had been expected to be a dull campaign into a nail-biting event, with 37-year-old Jacinda Ardern vying to become the country's third woman prime minister and the youngest of recent times.

"It's tight," Ms Ardern, whose popularity prompted media to coin the term "Jacindamania", said on Friday. "It shows that every single vote will count and that turnout will determine this election."

Labour hopes to ride a worldwide wave of change that most recently propelled France's Emmanuel Macron to become its youngest head of state since Napoleon.

Mr English, a 55-year-old former finance minister who took over after John Key's shock resignation last year, is making his second bid to be elected leader after a failed attempt in 2002.

Who is Jacinda Ardern?

The woman behind "Jacindamania" is a career politician who describes herself as a policy nerd and says she always envisaged herself working behind the scenes, not running for the top job.

Ms Ardern grew up in the North Island hinterland, where her father was a police officer. She credits the poverty she saw there with shaping her beliefs.

Jacinda Ardern speaks with the media during a visit to a medical centre on the Labour Party's campaign trail in Wellington on September 19, 2017 - Credit: MARTY MELVILLE/AFP
Jacinda Ardern speaks with the media during a visit to a medical centre on the Labour Party's campaign trail in Wellington on September 19, 2017 Credit: MARTY MELVILLE/AFP

Raised as a Mormon, she left the faith in her 20s due to its stance against homosexuality.

After completing a communications degree, Ms Ardern started out in Helen Clark's office before heading to Britain to work as a policy adviser in Tony Blair's government.

Ms Ardern was elected to New Zealand's parliament in 2008 and has long been seen as Labour's rising star, although most pundits considered her a leader for the future, not this campaign.

But she has risen to the challenge, remaining calm and articulate in the heat of the election battle and matching Mr English in some feisty TV debate exchanges.

Ms Ardern has faced sexism during the campaign. She was twice asked about her family plans within 24 hours of taking over as opposition leader and on the second occasion slapped down the journalist, saying the question was “totally unacceptable in 2017”.

Who is Bill English?

Mr English took over as prime minister last December following John Key's shock resignation.

The 55-year-old has never matched Mr Key's personal popularity but is seen as a steady hand after eight years as finance minister in the National Party.

A staunchly Catholic father-of-six, the former farmer describes himself as a social conservative.

New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English holds his great-nephews, Archibald and Huxbury Scanlon, while campaigning in Hamilton, New Zealand, Friday, September 22, 2017 - Credit:   Mark Mitchell/ New Zealand Herald via AP
New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English holds his great-nephews, Archibald and Huxbury Scanlon, while campaigning in Hamilton, New Zealand, Friday, September 22, 2017 Credit: Mark Mitchell/ New Zealand Herald via AP

His message through the campaign has been about stability, urging voters to stick with a government that has delivered healthy economic growth throughout nine years in office.

The election is his chance to gain a mandate after serving for so long as Mr Key's loyal deputy.

Mr English's last leadership foray in 2002 ended in disaster for National. The party suffered a record loss, taking barely 20 percent of the vote against Helen Clark's Labour government.

It was a setback that would have ended many careers but the then 40-year-old vowed to continue, later saying: "You learn more from losing than you do from winning."

Will 'Jacindamania' turn the tide for Labour?

Considering that Ms Ardern described leading New Zealand Labour as “the worst job in the world” after accepting the post just seven weeks ago, the 2017 election has since turned into something of a fairytale for the country’s underachieving second party.

With their youthful leader at the helm and ‘Jacindamania’ in full bloom, Labour somehow overturned a miserable 20 point deficit to the incumbent National party in polling just seven weeks ago.

Public fascination – or at least curiosity – with the 37-year-old former policy adviser to Tony Blair helped Labour nudge ahead by two points for the first time in 12 years of polling after the first televised leaders debate.

Jacinda Ardern is mobbed by university students during a visit to Victoria University in Wellington on September 19 - Credit: MARTY MELVILLE/AFP
Jacinda Ardern is mobbed by university students during a visit to Victoria University in Wellington on September 19 Credit: MARTY MELVILLE/AFP

Labour has not won a New Zealand election since Helen Clark’s third and final win in September 2005.

But following the fourth leaders’ debate between Ms Ardern and Mr English on Wednesday, and after a bruising and volatile campaign, the polls showed the ruling National Party were back in an election-winning position.

Or, at least with an 8.5 point lead in the Newshub Reid Research poll, it looks that way.

It was always going to be a tall order for newcomer Ms Ardern to convince the public “let's do this” – as Labour’s revised slogan urged – and overcome such a huge gulf between the parties.

Should the National Party prevail, Mr English’s safety-first “vote for proven leadership” pitch will be one key reason – never mind that he’s only been in charge this time around for less than a year.

Who is Winston Peters and why is he so important?

For decades New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has been known as "The Kingmaker" - a role the populist anti-immigration campaigner could play again if the election is deadlocked.

New Zealand's complex proportional voting system means minor parties usually hold the balance of power, allowing Mr Peters to carve out a parliamentary niche as the man in the middle of the major parties.

If the result is close, Mr English or Ms Ardern could both seek to form a coalition government with the 72-year-old political veteran.

NZ First leader Winston Peters  - Credit:  Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images
NZ First leader Winston Peters Credit: Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

Mr Peters' fiery rhetoric has seen him compared to US President Donald Trump but he is also pragmatic and would support either side with the right offer.

He served as deputy prime minister from 1996 to 1998 under a National-led government, then as foreign minister from 2005 to 2008 as part of a Labour-led coalition.

Mr Peters, who is of mixed Maori and Scottish descent, entered parliament in 1978. He is a long-time critic of high immigration levels and also rails against foreign investment and political elites.

Mr Peters has given nothing away about who he would prefer to deal with in the event of a stalemate.

"If you go into negotiations preferring anyone you're leaving your team behind, you're not giving your country a chance and you're putting your personal bias out there," he said this week.

What are the key issues?

Ms Ardern accuses the government of inertia, saying that after three terms it has run out of ideas on issues such as housing affordability and protecting the environment.

"There's a movement for change and I think after nine years people are starting to believe that we're drifting," she said.

Ms Ardern's policy platform includes free tertiary education and slashing immigration to reduce pressure on housing and infrastructure. She has also said she wants to build thousands of affordable homes and clean up polluted waterways.

She has talked up the prospect of generational change in New Zealand politics, appealing for young, disaffected voters to get behind her.

Mr English, who took over as prime minister when John Key stepped down last year, has meanwhile dismissed so-called "Jacinda-mania" as "stardust" with no substance.

The 55-year-old ex-farmer and father-of-six points to his track record as finance minister under Mr Key, saying that only the National Party can deliver strong economic growth. He has promised tax cuts and a crackdown on gangs and crime.

What is the likely outcome?

It appears that Mr English – who presided over a heavy loss to Ms Clark in 2002 - will win enough votes to be able to form a government, with the help of Mr Peters.

Neither of the two main parties, Labour or National, have been able to secure a majority in the 120-seat House of Representatives since New Zealand introduced the complex Mixed Member Proportional-representation (MMP) system 21 years ago.

New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English serves ice creams for supporters in Pokeno, New Zealand, Friday, September 22 - Credit: Mark Mitchell/New Zealand Herald via AP
New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English serves ice creams for supporters in Pokeno, New Zealand, Friday, September 22 Credit: Mark Mitchell/New Zealand Herald via AP

The system was designed to break down the dominant two-party system and to that end it is still working; if polling is correct, neither party will be able to govern alone.

Even in a coalition including NZ First or the Green Party, Labour is not placed well to reach the magic number of 61 seats. The leading minor parties are unlikely to both join forces with Labour and just one may not be enough.

Most pundits are picking Mr English and Mr Peters – who have history and a mutual respect for one another – to negotiate a partnership and form government. By contrast, Mr Peters and Ms Ardern have reportedly never had a conversation.