Libya: A Bright Future Without Gaddafi

Forty miles to the west of Tripoli sit some of the most stunning Roman ruins in the world. Sabratha was built 2,300 years ago and is largely intact.

For 42 years, though, the site has not seen the tourists it deserves.

Now, if the wind blows the right way, the ruins represent one of so many different opportunities for Libya.

If tourism is the most exciting opportunity, the most lucrative is oil. Libya really is the land of black gold.

Gaddafi knew that and for a man who rejected capitalism he did a good job developing the oil industry.

The infrastructure is in place but Libyans have not yet seen the benefits of it.

Dr Alan George from Oxford University knows the country well. He explains that oil can have a curse, and does not necessarily bring prosperity for all.

"The big problem with oil is that it is effectively a rental income," he tells me.

"You don't have to work for a living. You just turn the taps on and the oil flows. It's easier for people to take a bureaucratic job."

Dr George, who has written books on Syria, from where he is now banned, and Jordan is cautiously optimistic about Libya's future.

"Given a fair wind politically, they could do a lot. Libya is very well placed; a lot better placed than many other Middle Eastern countries. It's a large country with a small population and with a great deal of oil.

"That alone sums up the potential.

"It's in a very good position for the future. Add to that the fact that it's got a long Mediterranean coast, the potential really is there."

Muammar Gaddafi's Green Book, which has been required reading for all until now, claimed to solve the contradictions within capitalism and communism. But Gaddafi's 'third way' ended up turning Libya into a strange contradiction itself.

Walk around the capital Tripoli, and you'll see signs of capitalist-like development everywhere. Some \$120bn were set aside by Gaddafi for projects across the country.

New office blocks dominate the portside and everywhere there are cranes, but they've been still for seven months.

Work will now begin again but only if order is maintained. Libyans were largely united in their quest to remove Gaddafi. But now that he is gone, that revolutionary unity could fracture.

Lord Trefgarne is the Chairman of the Libyan British Business Council. He has just returned from a trip to Tripoli.

"Libya certainly does have a unique opportunity. But whether they will grasp that or not effectively and successfully remains to be seen."

Is he excited by the prospects?

"I am not sure that's quite the right word." he tells me.

"I am enthused, but I think we have to be realistic. There will be substantial opportunities but they won't be handed out on a plate."

So Libyans have the oil, they have 1,000 miles of untouched Mediterranean coastline and they have the history. But behind the united front which brought Gaddafi down are many different factions, tribes and ideas.

Gaddafi's politics and policies created a contradiction that brought him down. The future could be a democratic, free-market, capitalist but Islamist state. That sounds like another contradiction but it is one that could just work.

Aristotle, who wrote at the time Sabratha was built, said of Libya: "It always brings forth something new". More than 2,000 years on, they are praying he was right.