2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

The way in which Emmy rules changed a couple years ago for there to be a little bit more crossover between the Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special race and the race for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar seems to have been apt. It is good to have that door open, especially since the documentary industry needs all the help it can get to stay healthy, but it does not mean that every Emmy season is going to have a bunch of also-rans competing to win its categories.

In fact, there really aren’t any major contenders in this category that had an Oscar run. Instead, the category is teeming with a genre the Academy’s Documentary Branch seems allergic to: cinematic portraits of artists. Building upon the momentum of “George Carlin’s American Dream” and “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie,” the last two winners of this category, are films like “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (HBO), “Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+), “Steve! (Martin) A Documentary in 2 Pieces” (Apple TV+), and “Maxine’s Baby: The Tyler Perry Story” (Prime Video).

Talking to voters, who all work in the industry as the Emmys are voted on by peers, it does seem like that particular brand of artist portrait is popular inspiration reminding them of why they do what they do.

If there is any counterprogramming to those icon-focused films, it is primarily “Girls State,” the follow up to 2021 winner “Boys State” from directors Amanda McBaine and Jesse Moss. The FX documentary “Spermworld” is also worth mentioning as The New York Times has had some success producing films that went on to be nominees in this category, and director Lance Oppenheim is currently seen as a prodigy within the industry. His latest project “Ren Faire,” for HBO, is helping put him on voters’ radars as well.

It is a bit of a surprise that this year Netflix does not have too robust a slate for this category, but “The Greatest Night in Pop” premiering at Sundance was a smart move for the project, as that festival tends to be the mecca for awards-worthy documentaries (last year’s winner “Still” was also a Sundance premiere.)

The Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special is still prone to curveballs, like “My Transparent Life” receiving a nomination last year without a push from any network, so there is a world in which Peacock gets its first nomination here for “Stormy.” In an election year, and given everything that has happened with former President Trump versus the courts, the portrait of the adult entertainer that played a role in his pitfalls may be a contender more politically minded voters are attracted to.

Predicted Nominees:
“Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (HBO)
“Girls State” (Apple TV+)
“The Greatest Night in Pop” (Netflix)
“Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+)
“Steve! (Martin) A Documentary in 2 Pieces” (Apple TV+)

Contenders:
“Maxine’s Baby: The Tyler Perry Story” (Prime Video)
“Spermworld” (FX)
“Stormy” (Peacock) 

Also Consider This:
“In Restless Dreams: The Music of Paul Simon” (MGM+)
“James Brown: Say It Loud” (A&E)
“Sacred Soil: The Piney Woods School Story” (Hulu)

More Category Predictions:
Outstanding Animated Program
Outstanding Talk Series
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Should “Girls State” specifically win this category, it would not only be two Emmys in a row for Apple TV+, but it would be another win for the filmmakers, who made the project as a follow up to “Boys State,” the Emmy-winning documentary from 2020.
Notable Ineligible Series: “20 Days in Mariupol” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “Bobi Wine: The People’s President” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “The Eternal Memory” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “To Kill a Tiger” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “Power” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “Federer: Twelve Final Days” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible); “I Am: Celine Dion” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible)

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