2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Scripted Variety Series

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

Enjoy this final year of the Outstanding Scripted Variety Series category!

To recap the rollercoaster it has been on in the lead up to nominations voting, there were so few submissions that a jury has to determine who the nominees will be. The barrier for entry used to be winning over 90% of the jury, but that has since been lowered to 70%. What is pretty devastating though is that it used to be that the jury could vote in as many nominees as they saw fit (and again, high barrier of entry), but now there is a cap on nominations, so there can still only be two nominees this year.

That honestly seems like a death blow for the category, as the whole issue has been that it has far too focused on two annual contenders, and any other show within the genre has therefore been shut out. “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” has won an overall series award eight years running. “Saturday Night Live” was on a six year winning streak before the two shows were placed in the same category. The way things have been going for this category, even before “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” came into the picture, is that submissions have shrunk rapidly.

Ultimately, it does make sense why both shows have such a stronghold. “Saturday Night Live” is an institution still generating headlines and high ratings after nearly 50 years. And “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” is, in a way, an extension of “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart,” which voters see as the gold standard for late night TV. But it is hard to imagine even the creators of both shows being interested in an Emmy season that is just them against each other ad infinitum.

Had the TV Academy not chosen to put a cap on nomination slots this year, one could assume “After Midnight,” a new play on a known Paramount property, would get a nomination, and be able to advertise that nomination to build its audience so that it could be an annual player in this category too. And would it have been so bad if all four submissions got in? “Painting With John” is certainly a better representative than the other three options for how expansive the definition of scripted variety can be.

Ultimately, rather than focus on reshaping the category to incentivize networks to make and submit more shows to the category, allowing for more shows of this nature to get awards recognition and all the true benefits that brings, the TV Academy will just likely recombine it with Outstanding Talk Series again, which has its own problems. And either way, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” will continue to win.

Predicted Nominees:
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Contenders:
“After Midnight” (CBS)

Also Consider This:
“Painting With John” (HBO)

More Category Predictions:
Outstanding Animated Program
Outstanding Talk Series
Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Previously in the Variety Talk category, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” has gone eight straight years winning an Emmy for the series as a whole. In terms of Variety series as a whole, its hot streak is only second to the 10 consecutive Emmys received by “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.”
Notable Ineligible Series: “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (ended)

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