2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Television Movie

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

Right off the back, it is newsworthy that Netflix has found its way back into the good graces of the Outstanding Television Movie category after spending a few years recalibrating in wake of the rule change that prevented feature-length TV episodes being eligible. When that was the case, “Black Mirror” cleaned up in this category.

However, though it received two nominations, its best bet is “Scoop,” a different view of the Royal Family starring Gillian Anderson (who actually has an Emmy for her work on “The Crown.”) The Jerry Seinfeld-directed “Unfrosted” did get seen by a lot of people, but was not exactly received glowingly. It actually was the most surprising addition here, but that could maybe be chalked up to the amount of star power it flexes (there’s basically a “Mad Men” reunion within the ensemble comedy.)

The most traditional winner would be “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie,” which had a decent winter TV awards run, with star Tony Shaloub, who has three Emmys for playing the titular character, being the only TV movie actor to get a SAG Award nomination. Peacock is working hard to make its way onto Emmy voters’ radars inch-by-inch, so a win here would be really big for the NBCUniversal-owned streaming service.

However, the most popular nominee is actually Prime Video’s “Red, White, and Royal Blue,” the rare TV movie to have a large enough viewership to warrant a sequel. Recent years have shown the Academy go for lighter fare within this category, so the queer romantic comedy helmed by Matthew López, an adaptation of Casey McQuiston’s hit novel, does fall into that sweet spot.

Hulu has become a network to watch though, when it comes to this category, having received nominations for “Fire Island” and “Prey” last year. Its nominee “Quiz Lady” already won a WGA Award for screenwriter Jen D’Angelo, and should it win, it’d give producer/star Sandra Oh her first Primetime Emmy after 14 nominations. It’s a dark horse just by virtue of being an original comedy with original characters, but it is not to be counted out.

Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.

Power Rankings:

1. “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)

2. “Red, White, and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)

3. “Scoop” (Netflix)

4. “Quiz Lady” (Hulu)

5. “Unfrosted” (Netflix)

Will Win: “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie”
Could Win: “Red, White, and Royal Blue”
Should Win: “Quiz Lady”

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: The Roku Channel used this category to get on the TV Academy’s radar, first with a nomination for “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas,” then a win for “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story.” If third time’s the charm, then “First Time Female Director” would continue the burgeoning network’s hot streak.
Notable Ineligible Films: “The Idea of You” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “Road House” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “The Greatest Hits” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “Atlas” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “Trigger Warning” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible);  “Am I Ok?” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible)

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