2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Television Movie

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

Sorry, but the Outstanding Television Movie category is a delight. What other category can put Oscar-winning director William Friedkin’s last film up against the feature-length continuation of the model blue sky-era USA Network procedural?

This category is where Emmy voters get the most strict about reverence for television as a medium. A film trying to win cannot feel like some cast-off that’s theatrical release dreams were shattered. Even if it premiered next to Oscar contenders at the Venice Film Festival, like the Showtime movie “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial,” the project has to still be positioned like it was always meant to be watched on the small screen.

That is baked into the appeal of Peacock’s “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie,” the aforementioned follow-up to the USA Network hit that earned star Tony Shaloub three Emmys. Despite the show ending in 2009, it has had enough lasting appeal to net the film nominations from PGA, SAG, WGA, and the Critics Choice Awards. Shaloub getting a SAG Award nomination in a category that does not separate performances from limited series and TV movies especially shows that the property is popular with actors, a big sect of the TV Academy voting bloc.

“Quiz Lady,” a 2023 Toronto International Film Festival premiere, has been the main push for Hulu, which had two films nominated in this cast last year. Star Sandra Oh has had 13 Primetime Emmy nominations, and zero wins. Given how she is a producer on the project as well, there is a chance a win for the film this year could finally end that streak.

Prime Video and Netflix, two networks that rack up tons of nominations for their scripted projects, have not fared as well as one would assume since feature-length TV episodes were removed from the category (the latter streaming service’s series “Black Mirror” used to clean up here.) On the Prime Video side, the issue has more so been an oversaturation, where the platform was submitting almost every original movie it put out, obfuscating which particular film it is actually pushing to win. Meanwhile Netflix would just start campaigning its films too late to be considered. “Do Revenge” is a good example of one of their films that had a real shot at a nomination had it been advertised to voters earlier as an option.

Anyways, Prime Video’s “Red, White, and Royal Blue” was so big that it’s getting a sequel, and “Scoop” smartly has positioned itself as in conversation with “The Crown,” a big award winner for Netflix. Gillian Anderson, who got an Emmy for playing Margaret Thatcher on said show, serves as the bridge between the two projects — “Scoop” bravely tackling the Prince Andrew subject “The Crown” would not touch with a 10-foot pole.

Predicted Nominees:
“The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Showtime)
“Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)
“Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
“Red, White, and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
“Scoop” (Netflix)

Contenders:
“The Great Lillian Hall” (HBO)
“Finestkind” (Paramount+)
“Música” (Prime Video)

In a Perfect World:
“First Time Female Director” (Roku Channel)
“No One Will Save You” (Hulu)
“Shooting Stars” (Peacock)

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: The Roku Channel used this category to get on the TV Academy’s radar, first with a nomination for “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas,” then a win for “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story.” If third time’s the charm, then “First Time Female Director” would continue the burgeoning network’s hot streak.
Notable Ineligible Films: “The Idea of You” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “Road House” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “The Greatest Hits” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “Atlas” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “Trigger Warning” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible);  “Am I Ok?” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible)

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