2024 Emmys Lead Actor Limited or TV Movie Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie

Weekly Commentary (Updated: April 24, 2024): Netflix’s latest thriller series “Baby Reindeer” has taken the internet by storm, sparking a full-fledged Emmys campaign and positioning itself as a potential award magnet, particularly for its standout star, creator, and writer Richard Gadd.

Adapted from Gadd’s stage play of the same name, “Baby Reindeer” delves into the story of Donny (played by Gadd), a fictionalized version of the comedian, as he encounters Martha (Jessica Gunning), an eccentric former lawyer, in the bar where he works. Martha’s obsession with Donny forces him to confront past trauma from a sexual assault and explore his own sexuality while navigating a relationship with Teri (Nava Mau), a therapist he meets on a transgender dating app.

Drawing comparisons to Netflix’s “You” and HBO’s “I May Destroy You,” Gadd’s performance stands out as a revelation, and could potentially earn attention from the TV Academy, particularly in top categories. The love could also translate for Gadd’s stunning co-stars Jessica Gunning and Nava Mau in their supporting roles.

However, stiff competition looms, with established A-listers making early moves.

Jon Hamm’s journey to Emmy recognition with 16 nominations culminated in his acclaimed portrayal of Don Draper in “Mad Men” back in 2015. Despite this, Hamm hasn’t returned to the Emmy stage since. This year could mark a shift with his role in FX’s “Fargo” Season 5.

In this latest season of the anthology, Hamm embodies Sheriff Roy Tillman, a morally ambiguous rancher and constitutional sheriff in Stark County, North Dakota. It’s a departure from Hamm’s usual roles, and his chemistry with Juno Temple is a true highlight.

Andrew Scott, who garnered awards traction for the moving drama “All of Us Strangers,” and unfortunately missed out on a deserved Oscar nod, delivers another riveting turn as the titular character in Netflix’s monochramatic “Ripley” from Steven Zaillian. Meanwhile, Hiroyuki Sanada’s role in FX’s “Shōgun” further adds intrigue to this year’s Emmy race, which will also help his co-star Cosmo Jarvis, potentially giving them both their deserved due.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

And the Predicted Nominees Are

Next in Line

Also In Contention

Eligible Performances (Lead Actor, Limited/TV Movie)

**The list below is not complete and have been confirmed as officially submitted. All information is subject to change. Grouped by network that airs each series.

• Clive Owen — “Monsieur Spade” (AMC)

• Tom Holland — “The Crowded Room” (Apple TV+)

• Michael Douglas — “Franklin” (Apple TV+)

• Tobias Menzies — “Manhunt” (Apple TV+)

• Austin Butler — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)

• Callum Turner — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)

• Jason Isaacs — “Archie” (BritBox)

• Samuel L. Jackson — “Secret Invasion” (Disney+)

• Matt Czuchry — “American Horror Story: Delicate” (FX)

• Brian Tyree Henry — “Class of ’09” (FX)

• Jon Hamm — “Fargo” (FX)

• Tom Hollander — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)

• Robert Carlyle — “The Full Monty” (FX)

• Clive Owen — “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX)

• Cosmo Jarvis — “Shōgun” (FX)

• Hiroyuki Sanada — “Shōgun” (FX)

• Mandy Patinkin — “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)

• Josh Charles — “The Veil” (Hulu)

• Logan Lerman — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)

• Bill Pullman — “Murdaugh Murders: The Movie – Parts 1 and 2” (Lifetime)

• The Weeknd — “The Idol” (Max)

• Matthias Schoenaerts — “The Regime” (Max)

• Hoa Xuande — “The Sympathizer” (Max)

• Kelvin Harrison Jr. — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)

• Aaron Pierre — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)

• Louis Hofmann — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)

• Richard Gadd — “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)

• Paapa Essiedu — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)

• Aaron Paul — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)

• Felix Cameron — “Boy Swallows Universe” (Netflix)

• Benedict Cumberbatch — “Eric” (Netflix)

• Bruce Greenwood — “Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)

• Leo Woodall — “One Day” (Netflix)

• Matthew Broderick — “Painkiller” (Netflix)

• Andrew Scott — “Ripley” (Netflix)

• Rufus Sewell — “Scoop” (Netflix)

• Kiefer Sutherland — “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)

• Ben Foster — “Finestkind” (Paramount+)

• Ewan McGregor — “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+)

• David Oyelowo — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)

• Domhnall Gleeson — “Alice & Jack” (PBS)

• Sam Neill — “Apples Never Fall” (Peacock)

• Colin Woodell — “The Continental: From the World of John Wick” (Peacock)

• Édgar Ramírez — “Dr. Death” (Peacock)

• Paapa Essiedu — “Genie” (Peacock)

• Tony Shalhoub — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)

• Jonah Hauer-King — “The Tattooist of Auschwitz” (Peacock)

• Rudy Mancuso — “Música” (Prime Video)

• Nicholas Galitzine — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)

• Taylor Zakhar Perez — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)

• John Cena — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)

• Zac Efron — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)

• David Oyelowo — “Role Play” (Prime Video)

• Snoop Dogg — “The UnderDoggs” (Prime Video)

• Matt Bomer — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)

• Nicholas Galitzine — “Mary & George” (Starz)

More Information (Lead Actor, Limited/TV Movie)

2023 category winner: Steven Yeun as Danny Cho — “Beef” (Netflix)

2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)

• Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024

• Feb. 29: Submissions open

• May 9: Deadline for programs that identify as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.

• June 13: Nominations-round voting begins

• June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT

• June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)

• July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.

• July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.

• August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.

• August 15: Final-round voting begins.

• August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.

• Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala

• Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.

Emmy Awards Predictions

Other Awards Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship, and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy, which hosts the Emmys, consists of over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.

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