2024 Emmys Predictions For Every Category

Variety‘s Awards Circuit is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year. It features the official predictions for the Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Emmy Predictions: All Categories

Weekly Commentary (Updated May 16, 2024): FX’s “Shōgun” is officially in the drama race for the Primetime Emmys.

FX has confirmed that the once limited or anthology series heavyweight has been officially submitted and accepted in the drama categories, where it will compete against Netflix’s “The Crown,” Apple’s “The Morning Show” and Prime Video’s “Fallout.” In addition, the network has shared exclusively with Variety the complete list of 40 Emmy submissions, which includes six submissions for directing, four for writing, and two eligible guest actors. HBO’s “Game of Thrones” currently holds the record for most nominations in a single year with 32. Could FX break the monumental record?

There’s also been multiple shake-ups in the talk series and scripted variety races.

The spicy chicken wing interview series “Hot Ones,” hosted by Sean Evans, has successfully petitioned to be included in the outstanding talk series category. On the other hand, once vying for a spot in scripted variety, Netflix’s “John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA” has also been moved to compete in the talk series race. Both shows will face late-night hosts Jimmy Kimmel, Jimmy Fallon, Stephen Colbert, and Seth Meyers.

There are 46 total categories currently being predicted. This week, there are new additions for short-form (comedy, drama) and performers in a short-form series.

The eligibility deadline for all series concluding their runs is May 31. The nominations-voting-round is open from June 13 to June 24.

Top 3 nomination leaders for series: “The Bear” (23); “Shōgun” (15); “The Crown” (13)

Top 3 nomination leaders for networks: Netflix (53); FX (49); Max (38)

Upcoming For Your Consideration (FYC) events: “Watch What Happens Live with Andy Cohen” and “Thank You, Goodnight: The Bon Jovi Story” (May 16); “The Crown,” “Platonic,” “Physical,” “Pepito’s America Mamadas” and “Top Chef” (May 17); “Based on a True Story,” “No One Will Save You,” “A Gentleman in Moscow” and “Scott Pilgrim Takes Off” (May 18)

Note: Not all category and genre placements have yet to be confirmed and are subject to change.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

*** = Predicted Winner

Drama Series

“The Crown” (Netflix)
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
“Shōgun” (FX) ***
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Comedy Series

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
“Gen V” (Prime Video)
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
“Hacks” (Max)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Limited Series

“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) ***
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
“Ripley” (Netflix)
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Television Movie

“The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
“Mr. Monk’s Last Case” (Peacock)
“Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
“Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) ***
“Scoop” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actor (Drama)

Donald Glover
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Cosmo Jarvis
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Gary Oldman
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Hiroyuki Sanada ***
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Dominic West
“The Crown” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actor (Comedy)

Larry David
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Theo James
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White ***
“The Bear” (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actor (Limited)

Matt Bomer
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Jeff Daniels
“Man in Full” (Netflix)
Richard Gadd
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Jon Hamm ***
“Fargo” (FX)
Tom Hollander
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Andrew Scott
“Ripley” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actress (Drama)

Jennifer Aniston
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Carrie Coon
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Imelda Staunton
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Anna Sawai ***
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Emma Stone
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Reese Witherspoon
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actress (Comedy)

Quinta Brunson
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” (FX)
Maya Rudolph 
“Loot” (Apple TV+)
Jean Smart ***
“Hacks” (Max)
Kristen Wiig
“Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actress (Limited)

Jodie Foster ***
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Brie Larson
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Juno Temple
“Fargo” (FX)
Naomi Watts
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Sofia Vergara
“Griselda” (Netflix)
Kate Winslet
“The Regime” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor (Drama)

Khalid Abdalla
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Tadanobu Asano ***
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Billy Crudup
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Salim Daw
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Jon Hamm
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Takehiro Hira 
“Shōgun” (FX)
Nathan Lane
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Jonathan Pryce
“The Crown” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor (Comedy)

Lionel Boyce
“The Bear” (FX)
Paul W. Downs
“Hacks” (Max)
Richard Lewis
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Oliver Platt
“The Bear” (FX)
Paul Rudd
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Tyler James Williams
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor (Limited)

Jonathan Bailey ***
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr.
“The Sympathizer” (Max)
Christopher Eccleston
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Johnny Flynn
“Ripley” (Netflix)
John Hawkes
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Lewis Pullman
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Mark Ruffalo
“All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress (Drama)

Christine Baranski
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Nicole Beharie
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Elizabeth Debicki ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Moeka Hoshi
“Shōgun” (FX)
Greta Lee
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Lesley Manville
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Fumi Nikaido
“Shōgun” (FX)
Cynthia Nixon
“The Gilded Age” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress (Comedy)

Liza Colón-Zayas
“The Bear” (FX)
Hannah Einbinder
“Hacks” (Max)
Abby Elliott
“The Bear” (FX)
Molly Gordon
“The Bear” (FX)
Janelle James
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Meryl Streep ***
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress (Limited)

Lily Gladstone
“Under the Bridge” (Hulu)
Jessica Gunning ***
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Riley Keough
“Under the Bridge” (Hulu)
Aja Naomi King
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Jennifer Jason Leigh
“Fargo” (FX)
Nava Mau
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Kali Reis
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Guest Actor (Drama)

Will Arnett
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Michael Braugher
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Néstor Carbonell ***
“Shōgun” (FX)
Michael Emerson
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Rob Morgan
“Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
John Turturro
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Guest Actor (Comedy)

Jon Bernthal ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Ryan Gosling
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Christopher McDonald
“Hacks” (Max)
John Mulaney
“The Bear” (FX)
Bob Odenkirk
“The Bear” (FX)
Jerry Seinfeld
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Guest Actress (Drama)

Olivia Colman
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Claire Foy ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Marcia Gay Harden
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Yûko Miyamoto
“Shōgun” (FX)
Natalie Morales
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Sarah Paulson
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Guest Actress (Comedy)

Jamie Lee Curtis ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Olivia Colman
“The Bear” (FX)
Gillian Jacobs
“The Bear” (FX)
Sarah Paulson
“The Bear” (FX)
Emma Stone
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Kristen Wiig
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Directing (Drama)

“The Crown” (Netflix)
Stephen Daldry, “Sleep, Dearie Sleep”
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Nathan Fielder, “Green Queen”
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Jonathan Nolan, “The End”
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Mimi Leder, “The Overview Effect”
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Hiro Murai, “First Date”
“Shо̄gun” (FX) ***
Jonathan van Tulleken, “Chapter One: Anjin”
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Frederick E.O. Toye, “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky”

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Directing (Comedy)

“The Bear” (FX)
Joanna Calo, “Sundae”
“The Bear” (FX) ***
Christopher Storer, “Fishes”
“The Bear” (FX)
Ramy Youssef, “Honeydew”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Jeff Schaffer, “No Lessons Learned”
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Guy Ritchie, “Refined Aggression”
“Hacks” (Max)
Lucia Aniello, “Just For Laughs”

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Directing (Limited/TV Movie)

“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Weronika Tofilska, “Episode 1”
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Sarah Adina Smith, “Her and Him”
“Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
Cary Joji Fukunaga, “Part One”
“Ripley” (Netflix) ***
Steven Zaillian, series
“The Sympathizer” (Max)
Park Chan-wook, “Death Wish”
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Issa López, series

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Writing (Drama)

“The Crown” (Netflix)
“Sleep, Dearie Sleep” by Peter Morgan
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Land of Enchantment” by Nathan Fielder & Benny Safdie
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
“In Terms of Winning and Losing” by Julian Fellowes
“Shōgun” (FX) ***
“Chapter One: Anjin” by Rachel Kondo, Justin Marks
“Shōgun” (FX)
“Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” by Rachel Kondo, Caillin Puente
“Shōgun” (FX)
“Chapter Ten: A Dream of a Dream” by Maegan Houang, Emily Yoshida
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
“Countdown” by David Benioff, D. B. Weiss, Alexander Woo

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Writing (Comedy)

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“Career Day” by Quinta Brunson
“The Bear” (FX)
“Beef” by Christopher Storer
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“Fishes” by Joanna Calo, Christopher Storer
“The Bear” (FX)
“Forks” by Alex Russell
“Hacks” (Max)
“Just For Laughs” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Opening Night” by John Hoffman, Ben Smith
“Reservation Dogs” (FX)
“Dig” by Chad Charlie and Sterlin Harjo

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Writing (Limited/TV Movie)

“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) ***
Richard Gadd, series
“Expats” (Prime Video)
Lulu Wang, series
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
“You’re Wonderful” by Ron Nyswaner
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
“Little Miss Hastings” by Lee Eisenberg
“Ripley” (Netflix)
Steven Zaillian
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
“Part 6” by Issa López

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Talk Series

“Hot Ones” (YouTube)
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)
“John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in L.A.” (Netflix) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Scripted Variety Series

“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (Max) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Game Show

“Family Feud” (Syndication)
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
“Jeopardy” (Syndication)
“The Price is Right” (CBS)
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndication) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Host for a Game Show

Steve Harvey
“Family Feud” (Syndication)
Ken Jennings
“Jeopardy” (Syndicated)
Keke Palmer ***
“Password” (NBC)
Sam Reich
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
Pat Sajak
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndication)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Host for a Reality/Competition Program

Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, Jonathan Van Ness
“Queer Eye” (Netflix)
Alan Cumming ***
“The Traitors” (Peacock)
Guy Fieri
“Diners, Drive-ins and Dives” (Food Network)
Jeff Probst
“Survivor” (CBS)
RuPaul
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Reality or Competition Program

“The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS)
“The Traitors” (Peacock) ***
“The Voice” (NBC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Structured Reality

“Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
“Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
“Love is Blind” (Netflix)
“Queer Eye” (Netflix) ***
“Shark Tank” (ABC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Unstructured Reality

“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” (MTV) ***
“Selling Sunset” (Netflix)
“Vanderpump Rules” (Bravo)
“Welcome to Wrexham” (Hulu)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Documentary (Series)

“American Nightmare” (Netflix)
“Beckham” (Netflix)
“The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst” (Max)
“Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of TV” (ID) ***
“Thank You, Goodnight: The Bon Jovi Story” (Hulu)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Documentary (Special)

“Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (Max)
“Girls State” (Apple TV+)
“Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+)
“The Greatest Night in Pop” (Netflix) ***
“STEVE! (martin) a documentary in 2 pieces” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Hosted Nonfiction Program

“High on the Hog” (Netflix)
“How To With John Wilson” (Max)
“Life on our Planet” (Netflix)
“My Next Guest with David Letterman and John Mulaney” (Netflix) ***
“The Reluctant Traveler with Eugene Levy” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Exceptional Merit

“Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project” (Max)
“The Pigeon Tunnel” (Apple TV+)
“Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix)

Animated Program

“Archer” (FX)
“Blue Eye Samurai” (Netflix)
“Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
“The Simpsons” (Fox)
“X-Men ’97” (Disney+) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Variety Special (Live)

“The Apple Music Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show Starring Usher” (CBS)
“The Oscars” (ABC) ***
“The 57th Annual Country Music Association Awards” (ABC)
“The 66th Annual Grammy Awards” (CBS)
“The 76th Tony Awards” (CBS)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

“Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer” (Netflix) ***
“Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic” (CBS)
“Ramy Youssef: More Feelings” (Max)
“Ricky Gervais: Armageddon” (Netflix)
“Trevor Noah: Where Was I” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Casting (Drama)

“Ahsoka” (Disney+)
“Avatar: The Last Airbender” (Netflix)
“The Crown” (Netflix) 
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
“Shо̄gun” (FX) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Casting (Comedy)

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“Gen V” (Prime Video)
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
“I’m a Virgo” (Prime Video)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Casting (Limited/TV Movie)

“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
“Expats” (Prime Video)
“Fargo” (FX)
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
“The Sympathizer” (Max)
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Short Form (Comedy, Drama or Variety)

“Carpool Karaoke: The Series” (Apple TV+) ***
“Chicken Shop Date” (YouTube)
“Launchpad” (Disney+)
“Good Mythical Morning with Rhett & Link” (YouTube)
“Very Important People” (Dropout)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

Performer in a Short Form (Comedy, Drama)

Dariana Alvarez
“Launchpad” (Disney+)
Hana Marie Kim
“Launchpad” (Disney+)
Desi Lydic
“Desi Lydic Foxsplains — The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
Vic Michaelis
“Very Important People” (Dropout)
Mena Suvari ***
“RZR” (Gala Film)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

More Information (Primetime Emmy Awards)

2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)

• Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024

• Feb. 29: Submissions open

• May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.

• June 13: Nominations-round voting begins

• June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT

• June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)

• July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.

• July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.

• August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.

• August 15: Final-round voting begins.

• August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.

• Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala

• Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.

Emmy Awards Predictions

Other Awards Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.

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