2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Drama Series

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

Before “Shōgun” entered the Outstanding Drama Series race, there was not a demonstrable Emmy frontrunner. Sure, “The Crown” has won before (netting Netflix its first win in the category), but it seems both critics and viewers fled from the prestige period piece’s farewell season. Though the decision to move “Shōgun” out of the Limited Series categories has been framed around the showrunners feeling there is more story to tell past the source material by novelist James Clavell, it is incredibly beneficial to FX to enter the international hit into categories it could dominate, as it now pegged to give the cable network, which has been around for three decades, its first Emmy win for Outstanding Drama Series.

Something that has been a bit of a Mandela effect is Apple TV+ staple “The Morning Show” never even having been nominated in this specific Emmy category despite winning awards elsewhere. It leads a large Drama slate for the streaming service that also includes “Slow Horses,” “Sugar,” “The New Look,” “Hijack,” and more, but those mostly serve as acting showcases in terms of awards positioning.

The streaming service with the most surprisingly strong Drama Series slate has been Amazon Prime Video, which boasts both “Fallout” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith,” two shows with a lighter, accessible tone, plenty of action, and recognizable leads. To receive two nominations in the category would be a feat for Prime Video, which has only had one previous Outstanding Drama Series nod for the second season of “The Boys,” a big pandemic hit.

Still, it is always hard to count out Netflix, which has become the closest thing the TV audience has to monoculture. Though “3 Body Problem” has entered the cultural zeitgeist at quite the level of D.B. Weiss and David Benioff’s previous series “Game of Thrones,” enough people did watch it to warrant the expectation that it will likely receive a nomination.

Yet one can’t help but wonder if, in this dearth of competitive dramas, TV Academy voters have finally expanded their palettes, and given shows on other platforms a try. Though they are on Showtime and CBS, respectively, “The Curse” and “Elsbeth” are readily available on Paramount+, and given the surprise Emmy nomination for limited series “Obi-Wan Kenobi” last year, “Loki” slipping into the Drama race for its second (and final?) season is plausible.

Of course, the one network to always bet on for an Outstanding Drama Series nomination at the very least is HBO, so even though “The Gilded Age” is in its second season, meaning voters would need to, in theory, catch up on it, the Julian Fellowes series has likely gotten enough of a push to gain proper awards recognition this time around.

Predicted Nominees:
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
“The Crown” (Netflix)
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
“The Gilded Age” (HBO)
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
“Shōgun” (FX)

Contenders:
“Elsbeth” (CBS)
“Loki” (Disney+)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)

Also Consider This:
“Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)
“Tokyo Vice” (Max)
“Warrior” (Max)

More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Although “Succession” is over, HBO still has a chance to build upon its two year winning streak in the Outstanding Drama Series category should a show like “The Gilded Age” win. Netflix’s “The Crown” could also become the second show, after “The Sopranos,” to end its run with two non-consecutive wins in the category.
Notable Ineligible Series: “Succession” (ended); “Better Call Saul” (ended); “The White Lotus” (Season 3 is not eligible); “Yellowjackets” (Season 3 is not eligible); “Andor” (Season 2 is not eligible); “House of the Dragon” (Season 2 is not eligible); “The Last of Us” (Season 2 is not eligible)

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