2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

As written elsewhere among these predictions, the Limited Series Emmy races seem shaped by Netflix having both the most critically acclaimed pick, arguably, in Steve Zaillian’s “Ripley,” and the most widely watched pick in Richard Gadd’s “Baby Reindeer,” objectively.

Oftentimes, when creators who star in their own series receive Emmy nominations, the TV Academy will award their work behind the scenes to make space for recognizing another performer who was only eligible for a category like Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie. So though Gadd seems sure to be nominated here, his best shot at an Emmy are in the categories for Writing, and for overall series, while Andrew Scott’s take on “Ripley,” a show he did produce, but primarily acted in, is the category frontrunner.

However, it would be far from a walk in the park for anyone to win, as the Limited Series/TV Movie categories tend to be the starriest. Many of the attributes that would make the aforementioned actors a frontrunner also apply to “Fellow Travelers” star Matt Bomer, who not only does the difficult job of telling a multi-decade story that touches on far-too-overlooked queer history, but helped shepherd it onto the airwaves alongside creator Ron Nyswaner. Add in that co-star Jonathan Bailey is seen as the Supporting Actor frontrunner, incentivizing more voters to give the Showtime series a chance, and there is a fair chance the “White Collar” alum may take home a golden statue for his performance.

Speaking of former USA Network shows, it was pretty telling that Tony Shaloub got a SAG Award nomination for the Peacock film “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie.” Though it sees him returning to a role that got him three Emmy wins, it’s been increasingly difficult the past few years for an actor in a TV Movie to receive awards recognition for their performance. Maybe because his fellow contenders have a longer runtime to showcase why they should win.

As for that fifth nomination slot, “The Sympathizer” star Hoa Xuande is in a similar position to Bomer, given how his co-star on HBO series Robert Downey Jr. is Bailey’s main competition for the Supporting Actor Emmy, and he also is a breakout in a way that Gadd is, but there’s a question of how many voters stuck with the cerebral literary adaptation. “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” producer/star David Oyelowo also has the narrative of taking charge to get his Paramount+ series made, though other popular Taylor Sheridan productions have not fared too well from an Emmy nominations perspective.

Ultimately, it seems like Jon Hamm, piercings and all, is the one who had made enough of an impression with his “Fargo” Season 5 performance to not just be the one to make the cut, but have a shot at actually winning given his huge year (he’s in Emmy contender “The Morning Show” as well, and one half of the best part of “Unfrosted.”)

Predicted Nominees:
Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Jon Hamm, “Fargo” (FX)
Andrew Scott, “Ripley” (Netflix)
Tony Shalhoub, “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)

Contenders:
Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
David Oyelowo, “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
Hoa Xuande, “The Sympathizer” (HBO)

Also Consider This:
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Eric” (Netflix)
Ewan McGregor, “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Showtime)
Leo Woodall, “One Day” (Netflix)

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: Steven Yeun, “Beef”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Ever since Netflix’s first win in the category five years ago, with Jharrel Jerome for “When They See Us,” the streaming service has had one of its stars win every other year. Should a Netflix star like Andrew Scott (“Ripley”) or Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”) win, it would be the first time Netflix would begin build a streak in the category.
Notable Ineligible Series: André Holland, “The Big Cigar” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Daniel Brühl, “Becoming Karl Lagerfeld” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Laurence Fishburne, “Clipped” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Nicholas Galitzine, “The Idea of You” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); Jake Gyllenhaal, “Road House” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration)

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