2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

If “Curb Your Enthusiasm” were to overtake “The Bear” in a major category, it may most likely be Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series. There is no doubt Jeremy Allen White, the star of the latter FX series will be back in contention again for his performance in its upcoming third season, but this year is it for Larry David, the creator and star of the former HBO series.

To put things into perspective, despite being on the air for 12 seasons, spread out over 24 years, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” has only won two Primetime Emmys, and neither went to David. One could argue the character Larry David is as quintessential to the comedy side of HBO as Tony Soprano was to the drama side. The issue with the show has always been that voters feel some sort of way about the show’s dialogue being improvised, but to be able to do that as an actor is quite the feat.

All that said, White is a supernova, and Season 3 of “The Bear” is about to premiere just in time for finally Emmy voting, so TV Academy members will have his performance more top of mind when making decisions. That was often the approach Hulu series “Only Murders in the Building” took as well, but shockingly that show does not premiere its fourth season until the day after final Emmy voting closes. Still, stars Steve Martin and Martin Short have made it into the category together once before, and there is less competition this season, so nominations for their performances in Season 3 are likely still secured.

The fifth and final nomination slot is a bit of a wild card. Kelsey Grammer is one of the actors who holds the record for most category wins, receiving four Emmys for the initial run of “Frasier.” However, Emmy voters just have not caught on to Paramount+. Jharrel Jerome is another Emmy winner who did a fine job gaining recognition for his performance in the Prime Video series “I’m a Virgo” during the winter awards season, but that show likely premiered too long ago to stick inside voters’ minds.

Ultimately, Theo James feels like a safe bet, as “The Gentlemen” was a hit on Netflix, which is nowadays seen as the biggest TV network in the world, so enough TV Academy members likely caught up with it in time to give the English actor his second Emmy nomination in a row (following an Outstanding Supporting Actor in Drama Series nod last year for “The White Lotus.”)

Predicted Nominees:
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)
Theo James, “The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (Hulu)

Contenders:
Kelsey Grammer, “Frasier” (Paramount+)
Jharrel Jerome, “I’m a Virgo” (Prime Video)
Seth Rogen, “Platonic” (Apple TV+)

Also Consider This:
Craig Robinson, “Killing It” (Peacock)
Adjani Salmon, “Dreaming Whilst Black” (Showtime)
Alan Tudyk, “Resident Alien” (SyFy)

More Comedy Category Predictions:
Outstanding Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Plenty of actors have won the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series twice, even consecutively, so it would be notable for “The Bear” star Jeremy Allen White to win a second year in a row—it just wouldn’t really be a historical moment. On the flip side, if Kelsey Grammer were to win for “Frasier,” he would break the category records for most wins, and probably the largest gap between wins for the same performance.
Notable Ineligible Series: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (ended); Bill Hader, “Barry” (ended); Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Season 2 is not eligible)

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