2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

The 2023-2024 TV season was not a big year for juicy roles that put a star in contention to win the Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie.

Lewis Pullman definitely stood out from the pack going into the winter awards season, and even earned a couple nominations from Critics Choice and the Independent Spirit Awards for his performance in the Apple TV+ limited series “Lessons in Chemistry,” an adaptation of a bestselling novel. Still, it does seem like that show, and therefore his awards campaign, has lost a little bit of steam in the seven or so months since it first aired.

Plus, it was “Fellow Travelers” star Jonathan Bailey who actually won that same 2024 Critics Choice Award category for his decades-spanning performance as Tim Laughlin in the Showtime drama. That particular series has actually found a second wind during its Emmy campaign, despite premiering last fall, meaning Bailey’s co-stars Jelani Alladin and Noah J. Ricketts may have a chance at nominations here too if the overall series proves to be more popular with voters than expected.

But the other big supporting performance in a limited series this season was Robert Downey Jr. fresh off his Oscar win working with Korean cinema icon Park Chan-wook on a TV adaptation of Pulitzer Prize-winning novel “The Sympathizer” for HBO. The veteran actor plays five different roles across seven episodes, which is seen as a feat for some, and a distraction to other viewers. But the overall reaction to him and the show has been net positive, so he very well could win two out of the four letters in EGOT within just one year.

For the rest of this category’s landscape, it is mostly figuring out what mix of actors in highly watched, highly celebrated ensemble shows is going to break through. Plenty of options from the fifth season of FX series “Fargo,” from Joe Keery to Lamorne Morris, just as there are plenty of options from “True Detective: Night Country” like John Hawkes and newcomer Finn Bennett.

Predicted Nominees:
Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr., “The Sympathizer” (HBO)
Tom Goodman-Hill, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
John Hawkes, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO)
Joe Keery, “Fargo” (FX)
Lamorne Morris, “Fargo” (FX)
Lewis Pullman, “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)

Contenders:
Johnny Flynn, “Ripley” (Netflix)
Sam Spruell, “Fargo” (FX)
Treat Williams, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)

Also Consider This:
Anthony Boyle, “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
Tony Curran, “Mary & George” (Starz)
Noah Jupe, “Franklin” (Apple TV+)

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: Paul Walter Hauser, “Black Bird”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Last season, Hauser helped Apple TV+ score its first win in this category. Though competition is tough, someone like “Lessons in Chemistry” star Lewis Pullman, or “Masters of the Air” star Barry Keoghan winning could help the streaming service get a streak going.
Notable Ineligible Series: Alessandro Nivola, “The Big Cigar” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Ed O’Neill, “Clipped” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Peter Sarsgaard, O-T Fagbenle, and Bill Camp, “Presumed Innocent” (the season will not air in time to be eligible)

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