All eyes are on the Georgia Senate race in its biggest week yet

Two years after Georgia played a significant role in determining political control of the country, all eyes are on the Peach State once again.

On Friday, Sen. Raphael Warnock, Georgia’s Democratic incumbent, and Herschel Walker, the state’s Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate, will debate for the first time in Savannah, Ga., as the two candidates face off in one of the country’s most high-profile and consequential elections in November.

“Georgia is a piece of the overall ‘control of the Senate’ puzzle,” Atlanta-based political strategist Fred Hicks told Yahoo News. “Both parties are in a race for 51 seats, which means that neither party can afford to give up on any seat.”

For Walker, the debate could be a chance to redeem himself after spending last week embroiled in an abortion scandal. Up until this month, most polls had Warnock and Walker in a dead heat, until a flurry of Daily Beast reports recently revealed allegations that Walker, a staunch anti-abortion advocate, paid for a former girlfriend to undergo the procedure in 2009.

Since then, multiple polls show a potential shift in the Georgia electorate with Warnock growing a significant lead — one poll showed Warnock up by 12 points, while another showed him with a 3-point lead with less than 30 days to go before midterm Election Day.

Walker, a former football star and Heisman Trophy winner who was handpicked to run for U.S. Senate by former President Donald Trump, has denied that he ever paid for a woman to get an abortion, but according to the Daily Beast, the unidentified woman claims to be the mother of one of Walker’s four children. On Friday, Walker’s wife allegedly contacted the woman to try and clear the air, but to no avail.

Then, last Wednesday, Walker’s campaign cut ties with its political director, Taylor Crowe, who had once held the same role for previous Georgia Republican Sen. David Perdue.

Despite Walker’s scandals, his supporters have for the most part remained loyal. Many national Republicans, in fact, have doubled down on their support in recent days because of the high stakes of the race. Republican Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Tom Cotton of Arkansas announced they will travel to Georgia Tuesday to campaign on behalf of Walker.

For many political experts, Republicans are showing they’re willing to take back power no matter what.

“I don't think that Republican voters are quite frankly turned off by a lot of Herschel Walker's commentary or his lack thereof when it comes to issues that matter as much as they are the thought of losing that seat or a Democrat holding that seat,” Democratic strategist Ameshia Cross told Yahoo News. “Republicans want to take back Georgia by any means necessary.”

Republican strategist Paris Dennard said that Walker’s platform resonates with voters. “The momentum and enthusiasm are still with Republicans like Hershel Walker,” he told Yahoo News. “As Georgia voters weigh the kitchen table issues confronting their families, like inflation and crime, Reverend Warnock can’t stand on these progressive Democrat policies that just aren’t working — which will lead to him losing, and Republicans regaining control of Congress with Herschel Walker in the Senate.”

Within the state, however, some Georgia Republicans have been more hesitant to embrace Walker in recent weeks.

Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp pledged support for the GOP ticket last week, but stopped short of mentioning Walker at all. Kemp’s deputy, Georgia Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, went a step further, telling Yahoo News that he believes Republicans faltered when they decided to prioritize a candidate's celebrity over his qualifications.

“Instead of the race being a referendum on Biden and Warnock, the attention has shifted almost entirely to Walker,” Duncan said. “This is a byproduct of an untested and unvetted first time candidate.”

If Republicans lose, “we only have ourselves to blame,” he added.

“If we want the American public to take us seriously, we need to take the first step by nominating candidates they should take seriously. That process goes beyond celebrity or fame. It requires leaders capable of winning elections by articulating a conservative vision for governing.”

Meanwhile, Warnock appears to be gearing up for Friday’s debate, tweeting late last week, “The choice Georgians have this year is clear. This debate will prove exactly that.”

The two-year congressional veteran has largely sidestepped the political fray and presents himself as leader for all Georgians, regardless of political affiliation. “I believe in Georgia, and I believe in us,” Warnock said last Thursday at a rally in his birth city of Savannah. “And I know that when we stand together, the whole state is better.”

“The pressure is off Warnock and all the pressure is on Walker,” said Amy Koch, a Republican strategist and former Minnesota Senate majority leader. “There’s just so much riding on this debate for Walker and I think that he has to show that he is a very serious candidate,” she told Yahoo News, noting that debates alone don’t win a race, but they can tip the scale.

“Debates are all about managing expectations. It doesn’t win or lose the race because most people have made up their decisions, but it’s around the margins,” she said. “It’s three or four or five percentage points that could make all the difference in these debates.”

Nate Lerner, a strategist at Democratic consulting firm Build the Wave, agrees that a strong showing from Walker could counter negative stories plaguing the campaign, but he says he hasn’t seen the evidence that Walker or his team can turn things around.

“I highly doubt he or his team have the competency to do so and the more likely outcome is he looks foolish and loses more ground,” Lerner told Yahoo News. “Warnock meanwhile needs to convince the remaining undecided voters that his strong moral character sets him apart [from] Walker.”

In recent weeks, Walker has attempted to temper expectations for himself and raise them for Warnock.

“I’m this country boy, I’m not that smart,” Walker told reporters last month. “And he’s a preacher, he’s a smart man, [who] wears these nice suits, so he is going to show up and embarrass me. And I’m just waiting to show up and I will do my best.” A spokesperson for Walker told the Hill that the candidate was invoking sarcasm.

Some political operatives believe Walker is slowly realizing his own demise, while others believe he’s strategically setting himself up for a strong finish.

“Walker is more qualified to represent Georgia being a man of faith, entrepreneur, small business owner, job creator, presidential appointee, Olympic athlete, and corporate board member,” Dennard said. “[Warnock] has the oratorical advantage; however Warnock does not have the policy advantage.”

But not everyone sees it so plainly.

“If people voted based on character, experience, and competency, Warnock would win in a landslide. But that’s not how voters behave in reality,” Lerner said. “Most only care about the letter next to the candidate’s name. That’s why the race remains so close.”

The race is happening in a state that emerged as a key battleground in 2020. After all, it was Georgia voters that shocked the country and turned blue to vote in President Biden in the 2020 election and, a few months later, in a runoff, elected the state’s first Jewish U.S. senator in Sen. Jon Ossoff and the first Black male senator in the state’s history in Warnock.

With early voting beginning next Monday, on Oct. 17, Cross believes Warnock has run an effective enough campaign to come out on top, albeit likely coming down to the wire.

“I believe Warnock will fare well, but I do think that it is going to be closer than it should be,” Cross said. “Republicans are going to turn out for their candidate even though some of them are uncomfortable swallowing what it is that he’s selling. They will come out because they recognize that their party is at stake and they’re going to stand behind that.”

_____

Cover thumbnail illustration: Yahoo News; Photos: Megan Varner/Getty Images, Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images