Analysis: How could the SNP go from all seats in Glasgow to total wipe-out

Labour’s win in all six Glasgow seats reversed the SNP’s historic 2015 victory in the city when they turned every seat yellow for the first time.

Such was the SNP grip, winning six seats in 2017 and then all seven again two years later in 2019, it looked like the party would dominate in Glasgow for a generation.

Those victories, on the back of the 2014 referendum result in the city, marked a massive shift in the identity of politics in Glasgow.

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Once solid Labour, the party went into a period where they were not welcome on the doorsteps and an election was something to be feared not relished.

So, what changed to turn seats where SNP MPs enjoyed majorities of 10,000, to every seat going back to Labour in the space of nine years?

SNP people in the Emirates at the count had their own ideas.

A rising tide of anger towards the Tories and an overwhelming desire to oust Rishi Sunak and punish the party for imposing Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng and their economic catastrophe on the country.

Scandals involving PPE contracts, partying during lockdown, and a never-ending lurching to the right were felt to have pushed people towards Labour to force a change in Number 10.

From the minute the ballot boxes were emptied the story that was about to unfold was already written across the faces of the candidates and their supporters.

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Any feeling that there could be an actual contest was soon wiped away as the agents and campaigners doing sampling of the ballot boxes relayed the numbers back.

Concern turned to worry and finally to dejection and resignation that nine years of almost unrivalled dominance was over.

(Image: Colin Mearns)

(Image: Colin Mearns)

The Westminster dimension is undeniable, but so too is the police probe into SNP finances, arrests of Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell and the highly visible operation at their home.

Michael Matheson and his i-Pad roaming charges caused genuine anger.

And, among the legion of supporters who joined, campaigned for, and helped fund the SNP in the wake of the 2014 referendum, a feeling that independence was further away than ever before had led to them deserting a party it felt had let them down.

Some, more optimistic, looked at the majorities and looked for the positives.

One politician in the city clung to the fact that the difference was not huge and believed the next battles were winnable.

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They said: “It looks like this city is still going to be contested. The next Holyrood election will be interesting.”

Others were looking deeper into the implications of what the collapse nationally could do to a party.

One said, looking back to 2015, that was the start of a period for Labour where the party couldn’t mobilise in communities, networks were dismantled, money was scarce and optimism non-existent.

This was what could now be facing the SNP, they believed.

The loss of dozens of MPs means a huge cut in income, fewer jobs for the researchers and support staff that helped build the SNP up into a formidable electoral machine.

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Many of its councillors lose paid jobs as assistants to MPs all of which will make fighting the next election so much more difficult than this one.

Momentum is a valuable tool in politics and in Glasgow, it is propelling Labour.

(Image: Colin Mearns)

This morning it was MPs who saw their time come to an end.

While the SNP will be hoping to bounce back, some MSPs and councillors in the city will be feeling a lot less secure going into their next contests as a result.