Yahoo News Andrew Sparrow's election briefing: five more years for Boris Johnson?
Boris Johnson wins thumping majority
Johnson has won a resounding, 80-seat majority for the Conservatives, smashing the Labour party, confounding expectations and giving himself for the first time the opportunity to push a legislative programme through parliament. His majority is bigger than David Cameron’s for his coalition government, bigger than Tony Blair’s in his third term, and the largest for any Conservative prime minister since Margaret Thatcher. At times during the election Johnson talked about a 10-year agenda for government, and his victory is substantial enough to mean a decade-long premiership must now be a possibility. But he remains a deeply divisive figure, his predecessor Theresa May reportedly believes he is “morally unfit” to be PM, and he has reinvented his politics so often in his career that Britons don’t really know at all whether they’ve elected Britain’s Trump, as the US president sees him, or a pro-Brexit version of Michael Heseltine, as Johnson’s allies depict him. Perhaps he doesn’t even know himself.
PM promises ‘one-nation’ government
Johnson has claimed, with some accuracy, to have redrawn the electoral map of Britain, and has promised to govern as a one-nation party. Just as Ronald Reagan recast US politics by discovering “Reagan Democrats” (previous blue-collar Democrat voters who were attracted by Reagan’s demeanour and social conservatism), Johnson won his majority by taking seats that had been Labour for decades. He has promised to govern in the interests of these new voters. Whether he will or not remains to be seen. And what is also not clear is whether the composition of the parliamentary Conservative party has changed to push it in this direction. Johnson gave two short speeches on Friday (see here and here), but he has postponed what is expected to be a limited reshuffle until next week.
All roads lead to Brexit
The Conservative election victory has killed off any lingering prospect of Brexit being reversed, and the UK is now all but certain to leave the EU on 31 January, Johnson said on Friday morning.
With this mandate and this majority we will at last be able to [get Brexit done] because this election means that getting Brexit done is now the irrefutable, irresistible, unarguable decision of the British people.
And with this election I think we’ve put an end to all those miserable threats of a second referendum.
The People’s Vote campaign has effectively surrendered. In a statement on its behalf, Open Europe, one of the groups behind the campaign (it recently split), said:
The People’s Vote will now refocus its campaign to concentrate on vital social issues that this government must urgently prioritise in its Brexit negotiations.
Meanwhile
EU leaders have restated their call for the UK to remain aligned to EU standards if it wants a comprehensive trade deal to be negotiated next year. Johnson does want to conclude the trade talks next year, because his manifesto said he would not extend the transition beyond December 2020. But he has also said he wants the UK to be able to diverge from EU standards. This is set to be perhaps the dominant political issue of 2020, and the scale of the challenge Johnson faces suggests that his promise to have got Brexit “done” by 31 January (his central campaign promise) could soon look like a hollow joke. As usual with Johnson, it is impossible to predict what he will do, and there has been some speculation that he will end up betraying his hardline Brexiter supporters in the Tory European Research Group.
Jeremy Corbyn has accepted that his unlikely but transformational four-year leadership of the Labour party must come to an end, having led the party into its worst defeat (in terms of seats won) in more than 80 years. He suggested he would step down early in the new year. What is not clear, though, is whether Corbynism will survive him. “On some things he was a generation ahead of his time, but he couldn’t lead, and that’s what voters want, even if it means being lied to.” That is from the American journalist George Packer. Packer was writing about Jimmy Carter (in his book Our Man), but it serves equally well as a charitable assessment of Corbyn.
None of the potential contenders for the Labour leadership has declared, but the party has already begun an intense and acrimonious inquest into the reasons for its defeat. Corbyn’s supporters are blaming Brexit, while his many critics in the party are saying it was his leadership that was fatal to its chances. Others point out (rightly) that the party’s problems in some areas predated both Brexit and Corbyn.
Jo Swinson has apologised to the Liberal Democrats for a dismal election in which she lost her seat and the party slipped to 11 MPs, but said she did not regret fighting on a defiantly pro-remain platform. Having lost her seat, she had to stand down as party leader. One of the ironies of today is that the election would never have happened if it had not been for the Lib Dems calling for one, and Corbyn subsequently agreeing. (When the Lib Dems and the SNP both openly called for an early election, it became much harder for Labour to resist.) Without their backing, Johnson would not have been able to legislate to make it happen.
Nicola Sturgeon has said she will next week publish a blueprint for staging a second Scottish independence referendum after challenging Johnson to pass on the legal powers to stage one. The SNP won 48 of the 59 seats in Scotland (up 13) and, with Scotland now facing possibly 10 years of rule from Johnson, pressure for independence may well intensify.
The Conservatives have had their best result in Wales since the heyday of Margaret Thatcher, even winning in once rock-solid Labour seats such as Wrexham, which has never before returned a Tory MP.
Pressure is growing on the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) and Sinn Féin to swiftly restore power sharing after voters punished both parties for Northern Ireland’s political dysfunction.
A record 220 female MPs will take their seats in parliament after this election, but the House of Commons will still fall far short of being gender balanced. For the first time one of the main parties, Labour, will have more female than male MPs.
That’s it from me. Like the election itself, our daily briefing is done and this will be the final edition. A big thank you to all our readers - not least those of you who subscribed via email and app. If you’re looking for something to fill the gap, try the Guardian Morning Briefing for a news digest, bright and early on weekdays (get the email here, app users go here and tap ‘get notifications’). Or if you want to keep a close eye on Brexit manoeuvres, try Jon Henley’s weekly Brexit Briefing (email here or app here).
