Arizona Democrats fight to reelect Sen. Mark Kelly amid GOP infighting fueled by Trump

Democrats in Arizona hope to retain a highly contested Senate seat in the swing state, as Republicans continue to battle over the legitimacy of the 2020 election.

Sen. Mark Kelly won his seat in 2020 with 51 percent of the vote, but is already up for reelection. The previous race he won was to serve out the final two years of Republican Sen. John McCain’s last term. Kelly, 57, is a former astronaut and is married to Gabby Giffords, the former Democratic U.S. representative from Arizona.

Kelly’s win wasn’t the only Democratic success in Arizona two years ago. Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since 1996, edging out then-President Donald Trump by roughly 10,000 votes. Kelly’s victory, combined with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s narrow win in 2018, gave Democrats control of Arizona’s two U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 1952.

While Sinema has been targeted by many liberals as an impediment to the Biden agenda, earning scorn from Democrats back home and in Washington, Kelly has mostly kept a low profile. Although critical of Biden’s border policies, he has otherwise been a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate, with a voting record that has included supporting changes to the filibuster that would have allowed new voting rights legislation to pass. Sinema, along with Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., joined Republicans in voting down filibuster reform.

Kelly has proved to be a skilled fundraiser, bringing in nearly $9 million over the final three months of 2021. That helped him come into the year with more than $18 million on hand, more than three times as much as any of his Republican challengers. He also has the backing of Sinema, whose censure by the Arizona Democratic Party was not supported by her fellow senator.

“I feel confident that he's heading into this election with all the tools he needs to ensure that Arizonans know he's the right senator for our state,” Sinema told the Arizona Republic last month. “I'll be there with him, helping him every step of the way.”

Republicans, meanwhile, appear far from settling on a candidate to face Kelly, and the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential results is likely to be a major point of contention in the August primary. Both Republican Gov. Doug Ducey and Mark Brnovich, the state attorney general, signed off on the results showing a Biden victory, infuriating Trump and a number of Arizona Republicans who baselessly insist the election was stolen.

Ducey, who will vacate his seat at the end of the year due to term limits, has been a top recruiting target of national Republicans like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but has so far said he’s not interested in running. Trump, for his part, said Monday that his supporters “will never accept” Ducey as the GOP nominee.

Brnovich is running for the seat, and a smattering of polls have shown him with a double-digit lead in the primary. He has been victorious in statewide races twice before, winning 53 percent of the vote for attorney general in 2014 and 52 percent four years later.

Brnovich was among the Republican attorneys general who joined a lawsuit attempting to overturn the Affordable Care Act in the Supreme Court, a case that was eventually rejected, leaving the Obama-era health care law in place. Despite signing off on the 2020 election results, Brnovich launched an investigation into that election in November.

While Brnovich leads in name recognition without Ducey in the race, he’s lagging behind two Republican opponents in fundraising, having amassed only just under $2 million in donations so far. Jim Lamon, a solar energy executive, has raised more than $8 million, and has pledged to spend $50 million of his own money on the race. Lamon was also one of 11 Arizona Republicans who signed documents falsely claiming that Trump won the state in 2020.

Lamon made headlines over the weekend with a 30-second ad he planned to run statewide during the Super Bowl. In the video, he shoots at actors playing prominent Democratic politicians, including Biden, Kelly and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The ad, which featured Lamon dressed as an Old West sheriff in a shootout with “the Ducey gang,” was decried by many as being in poor taste. Kelly’s wife, the former congresswoman Giffords, was severely wounded by gunfire in a 2011 attempted assassination. Giffords survived but was unable to continue serving, instead becoming an advocate for gun safety legislation.

In addition to drawing condemnation from Democrats, the ad was criticized by Lamon’s GOP primary opponents.

“Absurd and desperate,” said Blake Masters, a venture capitalist. “Fits his campaign.”

“Real violence and use of deadly force is no laughing matter,” said Michael McGuire, former head of the Arizona National Guard. “Violence in America is real, and it isn’t funny. This ad shows poor judgment and isn't reflective of the values of the Second Amendment. This ad will do more to boost Mark Kelly's fundraising than help Republicans.”

Masters, the other candidate who has outraised Brnovich, has said he believes Trump won in 2020 and has also leveled specious accusations that Facebook helped Biden win the race. Masters is president of the philanthropic foundation of the libertarian billionaire Peter Thiel, who has donated $10 million to a super-PAC supporting Masters.

McGuire, who retired as the adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard last year, has consistently polled second to Brnovich, despite trailing in fundraising so far. McGuire called on Brnovich to release details of an investigation into the attorney general’s office by the State Bar of Arizona. He’s also called Biden the “duly elected president” but supported a much-maligned partisan review of the vote in Maricopa County.

Trump has yet to endorse a candidate in the race, but he did attend a fundraiser for Masters last fall. The former president has endorsed candidates in the state’s races for governor and secretary of state, opting for those who have said the 2020 election was stolen. His pick for secretary of state, Mark Finchem, attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally in Washington, D.C.

Both the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics rate the Senate race as a toss-up. Polling has been sparse, but a January survey by Data for Progress showed Kelly with slim leads over both Brnovich and Ducey. The poll also found that although Kelly had a less than stellar 46 percent approval rating, he was still rated higher than Biden, Sinema, Trump or Ducey.