Bank of England set to make interest rate announcement tomorrow as inflation falls

The Bank of England (BoE) will announce a potential change to national interest rates tomorrow (June 20).

The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet in the morning to decide whether it should increase, decrease, or continue to freeze the base rate. Currently, rates have been frozen at 5.25 per cent and have stayed at the same level for the past few months.

Banks across the country use the base rate to determine their own mortgage rates for customers as well as any other variable payback loans. Therefore, a change to the base rate will have a direct effect on some homeowners finances.

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Will interest rates go up this week?

When deciding whether it should change interest rates, the Bank looks at a number of national and global economic factors. One key influence in its decision making is the rate of inflation.

Latest figures released this week state the rate of Consumer Prices Index inflation fell to 2 per cent in May from 2.3 per cent in April. This marks te first time inflation has returned to the 2 per cent mark in nearly three years.

This means inflation has finally met the Bank of England's target before it was skyrocketed by the cost of living crisis, reaching levels not seen for around 40 years. While this does pose a positive turn for the economy, some economists are skeptical it will lead to an interest rate cut in the early summer.

Current popular opinion is that the base rate will be held at 5.25 per cent on Thursday. Investec economist Sandra Horsfield said: “Welcome though a return to target inflation would be, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) is unlikely to be fully satisfied should the numbers meet our expectations.

“In the (Bank’s) May Monetary Policy Report, the baseline forecast was for a 1.9% inflation rate. Nor it is clear that inflation will stay at 2% from now on – In fact, we expect a small rise again over the second half of the year.”

She highlighted that it's more likely rates will be reduced in August due to "a pre-election purdah period".

Policymakers will also be looking at other factors affecting the economy, especially wage growth which has remained resilient in recent months. Other factors to look at is inflation in the services sector which has been one of the key things stopping the Bank from driving down the base rate recently.

Robert Wood at Pantheon Macroeconomics similarly said that the Bank "still has work to do". He said: "We think the MPC will still cut Bank Rate for the first time in August, even if services inflation overshoots its forecast.

“As long as services inflation keeps slowing, the next CPI print should give the MPC more confidence to trust surveys which suggest inflation will continue to ease.”