How Biden’s disastrous debate could end up benefiting the Democrats

Donald Trump’s allies were like Cheshire cats as they celebrated in the spin room backstage at the TV debate in Atlanta on Thursday night.

They had every reason to be pleased. Joe Biden’s performance will go down as the worst at a presidential debate in US history.

Trump himself appeared delighted with the result, sharing a video of his golf swing (the pair bickered over the length of their drives) while his campaign hailed him “wiping the floor” with Mr Biden.

Before the debate, the president’s advisers suggested they wanted to use the event to focus voters’ minds on Trump and his record.

In the end, more than ever, the election is now a referendum on Mr Biden and his capacity to meet the demands of another 55 months in office (let alone another 90-minute debate).

However, Republicans shouldn’t pop the champagne too soon. For if anything has the potential to bring about a change in candidate for the Democrats – and a radical transformation of the vote – it was Mr Biden’s shambolic performance.

Polling shows Mr Biden and Trump are two of the most unpopular candidates in US history.

A large majority of Americans – about 80 per cent – do not want either man to serve a second term.

Trump may have been by far the better candidate on stage on Thursday night, but he rattled off a stream of exaggerations and falsehoods.

As more Democrats whisper about replacing Mr Biden, operatives will be considering data points such as a New York Times/Siena College poll last year showing a “generic” Democrat would beat Trump by eight points nationally.

That compared with a four-point Trump victory in a re-run against Mr Biden.

Moreover, Democrats can feel increasingly confident about running on Mr Biden’s record, if not the candidate himself.

The US economy has proved more resilient than expected, and inflation showed signs of easing last month.

They also have an opponent whose vulnerabilities are unprecedented: Trump is a convicted felon facing a potential jail term and numerous other criminal charges.

Voters’ main concern about re-electing the president, polling shows, is his 81 years.

His most likely successors are all relatively young. The vice president, Kamala Harris, is 59; California governor Gavin Newsom is 56, and Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, just 52.

Any one of them could turn the biggest line of attack in Trump’s arsenal – his opponent’s age and frailty – against him.

Mr Newsom has a national profile and benefits from the formidable donor infrastructure of America’s most populous state.

Ms Whitmer, an agile performer both on the campaign trail and in cable newsrooms, has proven she has what it takes to win in the all-important Rust Belt.

A late entry into the race would have its upsides too. There would be little opportunity for an ugly internecine war to name a successor.

It could also wrong-foot the Trump campaign, whose strategy has been carefully crafted towards battling Mr Biden.

And Trump’s own debating weaknesses – rambling responses, a propensity for falsehoods and refusal to concede electoral defeat – would have no cover without the foil of Mr Biden’s inadequacies.

Trump himself knows his best hope of winning is against Mr Biden. He has signalled he wants the president to stay on the ballot in November.

For now, it remains most likely that Mr Biden remains in the race.

Long known as a stubborn, determined figure, it will take the counsel of his nearest and dearest – his wife Jill and his sister Valerie – to convince him to stand aside.

Like the president, they have long believed that as the only person with a proven record of beating Trump, he is best placed to do so again.

In reality, his debate performance will have confirmed many in their view that he is the only Democrat who can’t.