Boris Johnson may be spared by-election over partygate

Boris Johnson has been handed the results of the privileges committee investigation into partygate, amid speculation he will avoid a lengthy suspension from Parliament.

The committee’s MPs have been examining whether the former prime minister misled the Commons over his insistence that there had been no parties in Downing Street during lockdown.

They could recommend that he is suspended from Parliament for more than 10 days and if that sanction were approved by a vote of all MPs it could trigger a by-election in his seat.

But The Telegraph can reveal that his hopes of avoiding a long sanction have been boosted, after the committee chose to ignore his recent referrals to the police for further alleged lockdown breaches.

The Telegraph understands that MPs decided not to look at diaries that were handed over to officers by the Cabinet Office as part of their partygate investigation.

Senior Government sources have also said that Conservative MPs will be given a free vote on whatever sanction is recommended for Mr Johnson.

One said the party had learned its lesson after it tried to force Tory MPs to vote to save the career of former Cabinet minister Owen Paterson, which set off a chain of events that led to Mr Johnson’s downfall.

‘A chance to unite the party’

A minister loyal to Mr Johnson said: “It will be a free vote – it is a chance to unite the party.”

The Telegraph has been told the vote is expected to take place on June 29.

It is understood that the committee has written a “warning letter” to Mr Johnson detailing how it intends to criticise him in its final report.

The former prime minister has two weeks to respond, with the MPs taking his arguments into account before publishing their final report before the end of this month.

There is speculation that the committee – which has four Tory MPs against three from opposition parties – has decided to give Mr Johnson the benefit of the doubt.

The Telegraph understands that they have decided to ignore the fact that two police forces are currently investigating further lockdown breaches in Downing St and at his Chequers country home.

It also comes as Rishi Sunak is set to approve Mr Johnson’s resignation honours list, a move which would only happen if the committee was set to clear him.

It is thought that Mr Sunak would not want to risk being embarrassed by approving Mr Johnson’s honours list just as the former prime minister could potentially face being kicked out as an MP.

The Telegraph has learned that Labour could attempt to amend the punishment that the committee suggests for Mr Johnson, should it fall short of the 10-day threshold.

Doing so would force Tory MPs to decide whether to back Mr Johnson or force him into a by-election.

Labour considering next move

One shadow Cabinet minister said on Thursday that there had been no senior discussions about next steps. But they cautioned that any attempt to amend the committee’s findings would risk being seen as a contempt of the Parliamentary process.

One Labour source said the party would decide its next steps when it had seen a copy of the report and its findings, but stressed it would respect the due process of the committee.

Other allies of the former prime minister were gloomy about his hopes of coming through the privileges committee report unscathed.

One told The Telegraph that the committee was being unusually “cagey” about its findings, which led them to believe the report may be bad news for Mr Johnson.

Another close confidante of the former prime minister said the cross-party group of MPs was “successfully keeping its deliberations secret”.

Government sources insisted that Downing Street has not been told what the conclusions of the privileges committee’s investigation will be.

This week four members of the committee, including senior Tory Sir Bernard Jenkin, voted for SNP MP Margaret Ferrier to only receive a nine-day ban over breaking Covid rules.

They cast their ballots against the committee’s own recommendation of a 30-day suspension, fuelling hopes that it might take a lenient stance towards Mr Johnson.

If a ban of more than 10 days is voted through for Mr Johnson, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the House of Commons, will order a local referendum that can lead to a recall by-election under the Recall of MPs Act 2015.

The former prime minister would face an uphill struggle to hold on to his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, where he holds a 7,210 lead over Labour.

A by-election there would also provide a fresh headache for Mr Sunak, who faces the prospect of two further crunch contests in the autumn if former Cabinet ministers Nadine Dorries and Alok Sharma take up peerages offered in Mr Johnson’s exit honours list.

Johnson up for a battle

Mr Johnson has made a flurry of interventions on health, planning and foreign affairs in the Commons in the past few days suggesting he is ready for the battle to win support among Tory MPs.

One MP ally told the Telegraph: “Boris has the fight of his political life.”

Government ministers loyal to Mr Johnson see an opportunity to bring the party together after a fractious 12 months by voting against any ban from Parliament for the former prime minister.

Tory MPs were ordered to vote against a proposed suspension of Mr Paterson, a close friend of Mr Johnson, over lobbying rules, and many viewed the compulsion as humiliating. All but a few followed the three-line whip but the demand sparked massive anger within the ranks, meaning many backbenchers were ready to openly revolt over partygate.

A spokesman for the privileges committee said: “The committee is proceeding in accordance with its previously published procedure.

“Under that procedure, if the committee decides to criticise Mr Johnson, it will not come to a final conclusion until it has taken into account any further submissions from Mr Johnson.

“The committee will then report to the House in the usual way, and it will be for the House – not the Committee – to decide on this matter.”