Boris Johnson will discover his fate... on his birthday

Boris Johnson's political future hangs on a knife edge. (Getty)
Boris Johnson's political future hangs on a knife edge. (Getty)

Boris Johnson's political future will be decided at a tense vote in the House of Commons on his 59th birthday.

On Thursday, the long-awaited report on the Partygate scandal by the Privileges Committee was published and was extremely critical of Johnson's conduct.

The committee said he would face a 90-day suspension from the Commons if he was still an MP, but since he has resigned it will no longer be applied.

The committee also recommended the removal of his parliamentary pass which grants access to the Palace of Westminster, which is normally given to former members.

The removal of the pass would make any potential return to the Commons difficult for Johnson, but the motion being voted can be amended, meaning opposition parties could add further punishments to the report.

When is the vote?

The vote will take place on the afternoon of Monday 19 June after what is likely to be a lengthy debate in the House of Commons.

What punishments could he still face?

On top of the removal of his parliamentary pass MPs could vote to add more punishments to the motion.

The situation facing the Commons is unprecedented, no MP has resigned before the sanctions of a privilege committee report was approved by the parliament.

Boris Johnson quit as an MP last week. (Getty)
Boris Johnson quit as an MP last week. (Getty)

ITV News Political Editor Robert Peston suggested MPs may propose an amendment that would apply the 90-day suspension to Johnson the moment he is re-elected to parliament.

Such a move would create massive headaches for the Conservative Party for many reasons.

The biggest reason is constituents have the power to trigger a by-election if their MP is suspended for 10 or more days.

Is it a free vote?

Privilege Committee reports are usually a free vote and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt has confirmed Monday's vote will be the same.

There was some pressure in the Conservative Party to force Rishi Sunak to whip his MPs behind backing Johnson but this would have likely produced a rebellion within his party.

Instead, MPs will be able to vote how they feel like, without pressure from their party.

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, said the Commons will "inevitably" vote in favour of the Privileges Committee report.

The furore around Boris Johnson has created headaches for Rishi Sunak. (PA)
The furore around Boris Johnson has created headaches for Rishi Sunak. (PA)

"Inevitably Boris will lose the vote because you have the whole of the Opposition against him… but you also have the Boris haters in the Conservative Party," the former Cabinet minister told Sky News.

What happens if he wins?

In the extremely unlikely event Johnson wins the vote he would be in a bit of a bind.

If he wins the vote it would mean the Commons reject the findings of the Privilege Committee and he would face no sanction.

This would mean he would not have faced a suspension, which was the reason he resigned in the first place.

He has already quit as MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip but if he won allies within the Commons could demand he is selected to stand in the byelection... that he triggered.

This would create huge political headaches for Sunak when he is already facing a divided party massively behind in the polls.

Who has come out in favour of Johnson?

Several of Johnson's closest allies have said Conservatives should vote against the motion.

Arch-Johnson loyalist Nadine Dorries has called for Tories who vote against Johnson to be kicked out of the party.

The former culture secretary, who announced her intention to resign as an MP after being struck off Johnson’s honours list, tweeted: "Any Conservative MP who would vote for this report is fundamentally not a Conservative and will be held to account by members and the public. Deselections may follow. It’s serious."

Another Johnson supporter, Simon Clarke, has already said he will vote against the "vindictive" report.

Clarke's words were mirrored by Brendan Clarke-Smith, who also called the report vindictive and vowed to vote against it.

Who has welcomed the report?

Unsurprisingly all of the opposition parties have said they will vote in favour of the report and criticised Johnson.

Angela Rayner said Boris Johnson was a liar. (PA)
Angela Rayner said Boris Johnson was a liar. (PA)

Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner said the report shows Mr Johnson is "not only a law-breaker but a liar", saying he is behaving "like a toddler that’s thrown his toys out of the pram because he’s been caught and he doesn’t like it".

The Liberal Democrats said Johnson should be stripped of the £115,000 annual allowance available to former prime ministers to run their office.

Although many Conservatives have been critical in the past of Johnson few have openly said they will vote for the committee's findings, likely to avoid the wrath of their engaged colleagues.

Many may choose to abstain from the vote.