Bristol region seats forecast as exit poll suggests big changes on way

The Green Party is being forecast to win Bristol Central, but the Labour Party is set to make wins elsewhere in the region as the party is on its way to a predicted landslide General Election victory. The exit poll by Ipsos UK is predicting the Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer is to win the newly created seat ahead of Labour's Thangam Debbonaire.

However, the poll is forecasting the Labour Party is to make wins elsewhere including Filton and Bradley Stoke and Weston-super-Mare. The Lib Dems are also set to be elected in the Thornbury and Yate constituency according to the poll.

Other seats - such as the key battleground of Somerset North East & Hanham - are said to be "too close to call". Jacob Rees Mogg for the Conservatives is up against Dan Norris in the new constituency.


Labour - who is being forecast to hold all the other Bristol seats - is predicted to win the General Election with a majority of 170 seats. Sir Keir Starmer's party is forecast to have 410 MPs tonight, up 209 from the 2019 General Election.

The Conservative Party is predicted to lose 241 seats, down to 131. This would mean Labour would take back control from the Conservative Party for the first time since the 2010 General Election.

Here is a breakdown for the seats in our area from the Ipsos UK poll:

Bristol Central: "Likely Green gain"

Bristol North East: "Likely Labour hold"

Bristol North West: "Likely Labour hold"

Bristol East: "Likely Labour hold"

Bristol South: "Likely Labour hold"

And in the wider region:

Filton and Bradley Stoke: "Likely Labour gain"

Thornbury and Yate : "Likely Lib Dem gain"

North East Somerset and Hanham: "Too close to call"

North Somerset : "Too close to call"

Weston: "Possible Labour Gain"

Bristol Central is mostly made up of the old Bristol West constituency, with a few changes. Bristol West has been held by Labour since 2015, with the current MP Thangam Debbonaire running to keep her job and see off a challenge from the Green Party leader Carla Denyer.

Before she was first elected, the seat was represented by the Liberal Democrat MP Stephen Williams, from 2005 to 2015. The Greens have now put a lot of resources on trying to overturn Labour’s giant majority of 28,000, and the polls suggest they might be able to do it.

Important factors also include the recent local election results, which saw the Greens become the largest party on Bristol City Council. Jacob Rees-Mogg spoke of a "terrible night" for the Conservatives in an interview with the BBC tonight (July 4), saying the Conservative Party has 'no divine right to votes'.

His interview comes as the exit poll by Ipsos UK says the constituency of Somerset North East & Hanham is "too close to call". Jacob Rees Mogg for the Conservatives is up against Dan Norris in the new constituency which is a key battleground in the area.