Certain of election victory, Cambodia’s Hun Sen prepares to hand power to son

When Cambodians go to the polls on Sunday, there is little doubt about who will be declared the winner. The only major opposition party has been banned from running, its members arrested and activists beaten in the streets. Independent media outlets have been closed down or their websites blocked.

With no viable opposition, Hun Sen, the strongman prime minister who has held power for almost four decades, is expected to again sweep to victory. His intense crackdown – which rights groups say is a deterioration even on the repression that preceded elections in 2018 – comes as he prepares to hand over to his eldest son, Hun Manet, 45.

Hun Manet, who was educated in the US and UK, was named as his father’s choice of successor in 2021 and has been endorsed by the ruling Cambodian People’s party as “future prime minister”. Winning a seat in the national assembly on Sunday, as Hun Manet is expected to do, will pave the way for him to become leader and it is expected that this election will be Hun Sen’s last.

“This is a once in a generation change or transition that will happen,” said Ou Virak, a human rights activist and the founder and president of the Future Forum thinktank. The same shift is happening across Cambodia’s leadership, as the old guard is replaced by their children’s generation.

Analysis by CamboJa, an independent outlet, found that of the ruling CPP’s 125 election candidates, more than a fifth were related to someone else on the ballot, an increase on the 2018 elections. It reflects how the children of the top brass are now running for office.

Hun Manet graduated from the US military academy at West Point, and earned a master’s degree in economics from New York University and a PhD in economics from the University of Bristol.

Such credentials might earn him credibility with the west, said Dr Sophal Ear, an associate professor at Arizona State University’s Thunderbird school of global management, but he added: “Don’t look to words: look for actions.”

For Hun Sen, the handover is a win-win scenario, Sophal added. “He gets rid of the glare of the west as the longest-serving prime minister in Asia and possibly the world … but it means nothing: he could still be in charge, but backstage.”

On the campaign trail, Hun Manet’s speeches have been similar in style to those of his father, say analysts, perhaps signalling a desire to project an image of continuity and stability.

Hun Manet will face a balancing act when he inherits the delicate patronage system that has been presided over by his father. There are only so many top jobs to go around, said Ou, and camaraderies among the old guard, who have a shared history that dates back to the horrors of the Khmer Rouge, run deep.

“The question is actually can he manage to hold a new leadership, a new cabinet of people who are doing it mostly because of entitlement and because of their fathers,” said Ou. “Can he keep everybody happy and together?”

There are many other, wider economic and social challenges.

Cambodia’s economy was one of the fastest growing in the world in the decades prior to Covid, but its tourism industry is yet to recover fully from the impact of the pandemic, while global economic factors, which have driven up the cost of fertiliser, have put pressure on the country’s farmers who are struggling with higher costs. They now face the looming threat of possible drought.

The partial withdrawal of preferential trade advantages with the European Union due to human rights concerns has also been blamed for causing a drop in orders to the garment industry, Cambodia’s biggest export.

Vann Thana, 33, a garment worker living in Kandal province, said many people living in her area were saddled with debt that they were struggling to repay. “When the borrowers cannot pay back they put a sign on the land – land for sale, saying it is being sold below the market price,” she added.

There is particular concern about debt linked to microfinance – small loans that were supposed to give easier access to credit but which are often collateralised with borrowers’ land titles and have been strongly criticised for pushing people further into poverty.

“Of course we see the political rallies,” said Vann of the election. “But we only see one party. We see the political stickers, but we only see one party.”

Vann would like a more equitable education system for children, and jobs that provide a proper salary and quality of life. She is typically paid $250 (£195) a month, including overtime, working in a factory that makes jeans for foreign brands.

Related: Who is Hun Manet? PM’s son anointed as Cambodia’s next leader

Rong Chhun, the deputy president of the Candlelight party, which was banned from participating in the election, said he still maintained hope that his party would be able to take part in future votes.

Cambodia’s youth – under-30s represent two-thirds of the population – will be a driving force of change, he said. “These young people want to have better jobs and to exercise their rights. They compare their own country and neighbouring countries,” he said, adding that this was especially the case for the many Cambodians who left to work in Thailand, Malaysia or South Korea.

For now, his party is under tremendous pressure. At least 10 members were in detention, and he noteed he had to be careful when giving interviews or speaking. “We want to have an equal competition. We do not want to see any more arrests – this will not benefit Cambodia,” he said. “Cambodia is for all Khmer … everyone has to participate.”