Chad interim ruler Mahamat Deby favorite to win presidential election

General Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, proclaimed head of state by Chad's army three years ago, is the favourite to win Monday's presidential election after the junta violently repressed much of the opposition.

But in an unprecedented scenario for Chad, Succes Masra, once a fierce opponent of the Deby dynasty who then allied with them and was recently appointed prime minister, is clouding the outlook by attracting large crowds.

Two theories are circulating about what is going on in the African nation of 18 million people.

One is that Masra's candidacy for president is just a show to provide a democratic fig leaf for a vote Deby will easily win.

The other is that Masra has been galvanised by the crowds and now considers himself a genuine opponent. That could even push Deby into a run-off and convince junta to stuff ballot boxes.

"The hypothesis, at the beginning, was that he was going to go along with Deby with the result all decided in advance, but Masra is now thinking there will be a Diomaye Faye in Chad," said Kelma Manatouma, professor of political science at the University of N'Djamena. Faye was the surprise victor of Senegal's March presidential election.

But lawmaker Rakhis Ahmat Saleh, a presidential candidate invalidated by Chad's Constitutional Council along with nine others, said: "Masra is a follower, he is raising the stakes simply to ensure his place after Deby's election."

Masra told AFP in an interview this week he would win the election but would keep a "place" at his side for general Deby.

Same slogan as his father

The few remaining opposition groups have called for a boycott of the vote, which they say is intended to establish a Deby dynasty.

Read more on FRANCE 24 English

Read also:
Chad court bars key Déby opponents from May 6 presidential vote
Chad's junta-appointed PM Succes Masra announces presidential bid
Chad's transitional leader Déby confirms candidacy for May 6 presidential vote