Chief BBC political scientist reveals the single biggest reason the Tories lost the general election

Labour has won the 2024 general election and Sir Keir Starmer will be the new Prime Minister of the UK. But the BBC's chief political scientist has issued a stark warning to the party.

Sir John Curtice is a British political scientist and professor of politics. and appeared throughout the BBC's election coverage, helping to explain the exit polls and now many of the official results are in he has said Labour has only won the election because the Conservatives lost so many seats to the Reform party. He said that Labour has "still got an awful lot of people to win over."

John said: "But for the rise of the Labour party in Scotland, which has been truly spectacular, we will be reporting that basically, Labour's vote has not changed from what it was in 2019. In Wales, it is actually down and in England, it is barely changed." For the latest analysis of the biggest stories, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here.

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He also revealed what he thinks was the one biggest reason the Tories lost the election. The BBC estimates that Labour will win 410 seats to 144 for the Tories. In Wales, Labour is set to win 27 seats with Plaid taking four and the Lib Dems one.

"One has to say this does look like an election that the Conservatives have lost and have lost primarily because of the votes they have lost to Reform which has cost the party seat after seat, after seat, after seat... Labour have in these early hours acknowledged the difficult task that faces them, I think they also need to realise that while they have won the right to govern the country they are not necessarily backed by a very high proportion of the country and they have still got an awful lot of people to win over during the course of their turn of office."

Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak gave a very sombre speech, despite winning his seat in Yorkshire. He said: "The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight. There is much to learn and reflect on and I take responsibility for the loss. To the many good, hard-working Conservative candidates who lost tonight despite their tireless efforts, their local records of delivery and their dedication to their communities, I am sorry."

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