China warns of reprisals against Taiwan after president’s inauguration speech

Beijing has warned of undefined reprisals against Taiwan after the inauguration speech of new president Lai Ching-te in which he maintained his government’s position on sovereignty, and did not concede to Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is a province of China.

In a statement late Tuesday, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) called Lai’s speech “a downright confession of Taiwan independence”, and again labeled Lai a “dangerous separatist”.

“No one hopes to achieve the reunification of the motherland through peaceful means more than we do,” the statement attributed to TAO spokesperson Chen Binhua said. “However, we must counterattack and punish the DPP authorities in colluding with external forces to pursue ‘independence’ provocations.”

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Lai was inaugurated on Monday, taking the helm from his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, whom he had served as vice-president. Beijing was expected to react negatively to Lai’s inauguration speech – it claims that Taiwan is an “inalienable” part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and that what it calls “reunification” is inevitable. Any speech by a president belonging to the DPP – Lai’s party – short of capitulating to that position was likely to provoke an angry response.

An entire page of the national party mouthpiece, China Daily, was devoted to Beijing’s response on Tuesday.

“‘Lai-style Taiwan independence’ will only exacerbate the confrontation and instability across the Straits, inevitably leading to self-overestimation and self-destruction,” said an editorial in the hawkish Global Times tabloid.

Lai is known to have stronger views on Taiwan independence than Tsai, but has toned down his position in recent years and pledged to continue Tsai’s more moderate policy path of protecting the status quo, maintaining Taiwan’ sovereignty, and deterring Chinese aggression.

His speech mostly toed that line, but some analysts noted that it contained crucial difference in the way it discussed the management of cross-strait relations.

Tsai often relied on the ambiguities contained within the Republic of China (Taiwan’s formal name) constitution, particularly around the idea of “one China” – which Beijing believes includes Taiwan, under PRC rule – and how both sides are defined and managed. She would often refer to the “two sides of the Strait” rather than using the names of the two countries.

“Tsai throughout her eight years used this ambiguity to offer a gesture to Beijing,” said International Crisis Group senior analyst, Amanda Hsiao. “She consistently said that cross-strait affairs would be conducted in accordance with the ROC constitution, without elaborating on what that exactly meant and without giving up the DPP’s position [that the two sides have always been separate].”

In contrast, Lai’s speech rejected some of those ambiguities in favour of explicits. He said the constitution “tells us clearly: The Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other”.

China has reportedly set a goal of being capable of militarily taking over Taiwan by 2027, a timeframe that will fall in Lai’s first term. In the past, Beijing has used other means to try to pressure Taiwan into accepting annexation, including economic coercion, diplomatic isolation, cognitive warfare, and military greyzone activity by its air force, Navy and Coast Guard. All these actions are expected to continue.

Lai’s speech affirmed the administration’s plans to build up its defensive and deterrence measures, warning his people not to “harbour any delusions” about China.

“So long as China refuses to renounce the use of force against Taiwan, all of us in Taiwan ought to understand, that even if we accept the entirety of China’s position and give up our sovereignty, China’s ambition to annex Taiwan will not simply disappear,” he said.