Conservatives could lose half of Surrey seats in General Election 2024, according to polling data

Kieran Graves
·3-min read
A new opinion poll shows the Lib Dems and Labour could pick up seats across Surrey
-Credit: (Image: Newcastle Chronicle)


New opinion poll analysis ahead of the UK’s General Election on July 4 suggests the Conservatives could lose seven seats in Surrey. The Liberal Democrats and Labour stand to benefit from the predicted Tory losses with areas including Guildford, Dorking and Horley, and Reigate open to change.

This is according to polling from Electoral Calculus that suggests there will be closely fought battles that will see results split by less than 10 per cent in at least four of the county’s constituencies. It follows swings in power at the council level in 2024’s recent Local Elections.

Conservative MPs currently represent voters in every Surrey constituency with the exception of Reigate’s Crispin Blunt who sits as an Independent. Mr Blunt, however, was elected as a Conservative before he had the party whip withdrawn.

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Surrey has typically been considered safe Tory heartlands but the new polling data coupled with the fact half of the county’s sitting MPs have confirmed they will not stand in the election, means areas are vulnerable to being targetted by opposition parties. There will be 12 parliamentary constituencies in Surrey at the 2024 General Election, up from the previous 11 due to redrawn boundaries.

Surrey Heath’s MP Michael Gove announced on Friday, May 24 that he would step down. This added to Esher and Walton MP Dominic Raab, Spelthorne MP Kwasi Kwarteng, Epsom and Ewell MP Chris Grayling, and Mole Valley MP Sir Paul Beresford who were already known not to be contesting their seats.

Dorking and Horley, Esher and Walton, and Guildford could turn Lib Dem yellow in July while Labour’s red is forecast to fall in Epsom and Ewell, Reigate, Spelthorne, and Surrey East, according to Electoral Calculus. The Conservatives meanwhile are set to hold Runnymede and Weybridge, Surrey Heath, and Woking, and will pick up Farnham and Bordon and Godalming and Ash where there are new boundaries.

Electoral Calculus analyses all polling and voting trends in the UK but does not take into account hyper-local matters such as a controversial house-building proposal or loss of a public amenity. It does attempt to account for attitudes to sensitive issues such as immigration.

The latest national predictions put Labour on 479 seats, the Conservatives on 92, and the Liberal Democrats on 44. The Green Party would pick up two. Reform UK would not win any, though with more than 11 per cent of the popular vote forecast it could cost the Conservatives seats in marginal areas.

The data below lays out the seats, the current MP and the party they were elected for, the predicted winner in 2024 and the predicted percentage chance of the result.

Surrey’s latest Electoral Calculus predictions

  • Dorking and Horley - LIB DEM GAIN (39 per cent) from CON

  • Epsom and Ewell - LAB GAIN (50 per cent) from CON

  • Esher and Walton - LIB DEM GAIN (50 per cent) from CON

  • Farnham and Bordon - CON HOLD (58 per cent)

  • Godalming and Ash - CON GAIN (49 per cent) - new seat

  • Guildford - LIB DEM GAIN (45 per cent) from CON

  • Reigate - LAB GAIN (69 per cent) from CON

  • Runnymede and Weybridge - CON HOLD (52 per cent)

  • Spelthorne - LAB GAIN (65 per cent) from CON

  • East Surrey - LAB GAIN (63 per cent) from CON

  • Surrey Heath - CON HOLD (61 per cent)

  • Woking - CON HOLD (48 per cent)

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