What does it mean for Oldham residents if the council goes into No Overall Control?

On Thursday (May 2), voters all around England will be headed to polling stations to cast their ballot for a local councillor. In Oldham, one third of the local authority’s 60 council seats are up for grabs.

This year’s local elections could see a dramatic shift in Oldham politics. That’s because the Labour-run council is just one seat away from going into ‘No Overall Control’. But what does that actually mean for Oldham residents?

What is No Overall Control?

Oldham Metropolitan Borough Council is made up of 31 Labour councillors, ten Liberal Democrats, eight Conservatives, and 13 who are independent or part of hyperlocal independent groups.

Because Labour councillors make up more than half of the OMBC, they currently have an ‘Overall Majority’ giving them control of the council.

But if they lose more council seats than they gain on Thursday, the council would go into ‘No Overall Control’ - which is when no one party has more than half of the total number of seats.

There are 91 councils in England who are in ‘No Overall Control’ - around a third of local authorities in the country, so it’s not uncommon. But Oldham hasn’t seen one since 2011.

How likely is it that OMBC goes into No Overall Control this year?

Whether the council goes into No Overall Control entirely depends on how people vote.

Labour’s situation is the most precarious it has been for the last 13 years. It has the lowest number of councillors heading into an election since regaining control of the council in 2011.

If they lose just one seat in total on May 2, they would lose control of the council, though they would still be the biggest party in the chambers.

There are a number of wards where Labour council seats are being hotly contested by independents and other political groups. These are Coldhurst, Failsworth West, Royton South, St James and St Mary's.

But the party could also gain or recover seats in Hollinwood and Royton North, with votes in previous years having been very close in those areas.

What happens if the council goes into No Overall Control?

There are a number of options available to local authorities who have no party with an overall majority, according to the Local Government Authority.

Councils can agree to a minority administration, where the party with the largest number of councillors (and are the closest to an overall majority) hold the reigns. This way, certain council decisions can be ‘vetoed’ if enough opposition councillors vote against it in full council.

Other times, political groups form ‘coalitions’ - loosely associated political groups who lead together.

Labour could find another political group or independent councillors to support them if they wanted to maintain control. But a number of groups - including the Lib Dems, the Oldham Group and the Shaw and Crompton Independents have already publicly stated they would make no deals with Labour.

Residents could also see independents forming an alliance and combining with another political party, creating a coalition of several different groups. Though this could take a lot of coordination and compromise.

What does that mean for local residents?

A No Overall Control result would mean the fourth year in a row of upheaval for Oldhamers. Leadership has changed three times in as many years, with coun Arooj Shah first elected in 2021, then replaced by Amanda Chadderton, then returning as council boss last year.

With every change, it can take the leaders and executives time to get to grips with the council system.

Coming to an agreement for a coalition can also take several weeks. This could mean delays in councillor decisions and projects. Councillors’ time may also be taken up with negotiations instead of focussing on the issues that matter to residents.

But councils without an overall political majority in charge can work well for some areas. Jonathan Carr-West, the chief executive of the Local Government Information Unit (LGiU), said No Overall Control ‘doesn’t mean that no one’s making decisions. […] In reality NOC councils have a pretty good track record of getting business done effectively’.

Though there is a risk that the council will be more susceptible to ‘political jostling’, according to the LGiU.

How did Labour wind up with a one-seat majority?

Labour started the year with a majority of 32 councillors and gained a member after an independent councillor joined the party. Coun Aftab Hussain of St Mary’s ward changed allegiances in January.

But just moments before councils were due to publish the list of candidates standing for elections earlier this month, two sitting Labour councillors quit the party. One of them, Nyla Ibrahim, is now standing as an independent candidate in Werneth.

Both councillors cited the Labour leader Keir Starmer’s stance on Gaza as their reasons for leaving. Coun Ibrahim claimed she was banned from featuring an article about the conflict in her campaign leaflet.

At the time, the local Labour group argued they had ‘stood in solidarity’ with the victims on both sides of the conflict and signed two motions calling for a ceasefire.

That left Labour with a majority of one and no Werneth candidate, just weeks before the big face-off at local elections.