‘Don’t trust any of them’: Tories face wipeout in Wales, but Labour is on shaky ground too

On market day in the ancient town of Newcastle Emlyn where, legend has it, the last Welsh dragon was slain, the place was bustling with farmers buying and selling cattle.

Viv Edwards, in a shirt bearing the slogan “No farmers, no food”, the rallying cry of farmers who descended in their thousands on Cardiff to protest against the Welsh Labour government’s agricultural policies earlier this year, had just bought a young bull at auction and had a satisfied look on his face. It vanished as soon as politics was brought up. “I’m Tory,” he said. “But who to vote for now? That’s the question. A bloody good question. I don’t trust any of them.”

In a tin shelter behind the burger van, a group of farmers was drinking tea and smoking. They complained about the Welsh government’s refusal to cull badgers, its divisive 20mph limit, the increase in the size of the Senedd from 60 to 96 members. “They’re living in cloud cuckoo land,” said one. But not one of them said they’d vote Tory.

Paul Taylor, who helps run the market, summed up the mood. He used to vote Tory. “But they’re professional politicians now, not proper people who actually know how to run things. They’re a joke.”

Such views do not bode well for Simon Hart, Rishi Sunak’s chief whip, who is standing for the Tories in the Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) constituency, or for the party across Wales.

The Welsh Tories did well in the 2019 election, winning 14 of the 40 seats in a country seen as a Labour heartland. This time they could be left with only one, perhaps Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr on the English border. Plaid will be satisfied if it wins three and Labour may grab the rest.

Jac Larner, a politics lecturer at Cardiff University, said the outlook for the Tories in Wales was grim. “Polling numbers would suggest the Tories are very close to an electoral wipeout in Wales, which is remarkable given their performance in 2019.”

While the market continued, a group of women met for a “knit and natter” social above a wool shop.

Asked what issues mattered for them, Gemma cited pollution of the River Teifi, which snakes around Newcastle Emlyn. “It’s being treated like a toilet. We used to see otters there. They’ve gone.”

Another knitter, Kayley, 23, said she had been diagnosed with autism but had been waiting three years for a full assessment. “That’s very upsetting.” She is worried about Sunak’s talk of clamping down on personal independence payments (Pip), which have helped her. “It all feels scary.” No Tory votes here.

The wool shop owner and sheep farmer, Sascha Docwra, said people felt let down. They don’t like the Welsh government’s approach to agriculture or its “harebrained” 20mph scheme but are dismayed by the impact of 14 years of Tory UK rule – the people needing a food bank and the cuts to public services such as transport. “I feel caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. I may vote Plaid Cymru.”

The Caerfyrddin constituency can be viewed as a microcosm of Wales. It is largely rural, a green and lovely land where the Welsh language is strong but has former mining communities that have seen better days and a coast that includes Laugharne, the pretty town where Dylan Thomas spent his final years, and Pendine, which has miles of sandy beach.

At Pendine, the Sea Dippers swimming group was taking a chilly evening plunge. Their swims are sometimes abandoned because of pollution and several have suffered stomach bugs and ear infections. “It’s worrying,” said Janet Taylor. “We rely on tourism. It’s a key political issue.”

Along the coast in Laugharne, the risk of closure to the doctor’s surgery has been troubling residents. Pam Jones, a retired primary school teacher, who led the campaign to save it, said: “It’s really worrying that services like this are under threat.” The campaign has been partly successful and the surgery now opens four mornings a week but still has no GP.

Health – which is devolved to Cardiff – comes up time and again. It is a good attack line for the Tories, who love to point out that Keir Starmer once called the Welsh administration a “blueprint” for a UK Labour government. Every time gloomy Welsh waiting time figures emerge, the quote is brought up.

The A&E at Glangwili general hospital in the county town of Carmarthen was packed when the Guardian visited, mothers and babies sat on the floor and four ambulances waited outside to unload patients. “It doesn’t feel like we’re living in a first world country,” said one mum, Jo, who had waited for five hours to be seen.

Sam Blaxland, who has just published a book studying the Tories in Wales and is from the region, said: “There is a feeling that south-west Wales has been underinvested in. It’s a sense I get when I come home that things look run down, fading, tired. There hasn’t been any meaningful levelling up.”

The cost of living crisis is brought up everywhere. Carmarthen record shop owner, Matt Davies, said everyone was working harder but feeling worse off. “It’s tough, everything feels a bit negative.”

In the corner of Plaid’s office in Carmarthen there is a shrine to Gwynfor Evans, who became the party’s first MP in 1966. Wisely, it has picked a no-nonsense dairy farmer, Ann Davies, as its candidate. “Who better to represent our rural community than somebody who lives it every day?,” she said.

She said another issue in the constituency was 60 miles of power lines being proposed to cut through the Towy Valley carrying electricity generated by wind turbines. There are dozens of “No Pylons” signs in farmer’s fields, on community buildings and in campsites.

One of the campaigners, Nicola Edwards, said it was not just about saving beautiful landscapes. “We’re fighting for our community, culture, language. All will be impacted.” A floating voter, the way the parties approach the pylons will be vital in securing her support.

Though the Tories are in trouble, Labour’s campaign is being undermined by the difficulties of its Welsh first minister, Vaughan Gething, who is under fire for taking a £200,000 donation for his leadership campaign from a company whose owner was convicted of environmental crimes.

Labour’s candidate in Caerfyrddin, Martha O’Neil, is a good news story. She is a Welsh-speaking woman from the former mining town of Ammanford born at the time of Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide win. Her dad died when she was 10 so she has known hardship but got to Cambridge University.

She said she and her family had been supported by Welsh Labour policies such as the education maintenance allowance. “I feel like Welsh Labour gave me the tools.”

Labour accepts it has to persuade people that it is worth voting. “When we’re on the doorstep, there is a feeling of disbelief that things can change,” said O’Neil. “Part of my role and my responsibility is to make sure people don’t lose hope.”

Hart declined to speak to the Guardian but Tory strategists insist their supporters will come out.

They may be alarmed to hear the views of people like Andy Gray, 62, who works as a financial director for a brewery in another market town, Llandeilo.

He has voted Tory for 40 years but will opt for Labour this time. “I believe that now is the time for change. It’s all well and good Rishi saying he helped everybody during Covid, but the help stopped as soon as the pandemic was over. I’m no great fan of Keir Starmer but there is no way a Conservative candidate will get my vote now.”